Members Only

July 24, 2018

There are two picks tonight. 

 

#1:Take Philadelphia Phillies (-101) on the ML against LA Dodgers risking 3.03% to win 3%
(Nola and Maeda must start for wager to have action)

The Philadelphia Phillies opened as slight favorites at home against the LA Dodgers, and yet we believe these odds are off by about a dime, which shows value backing them here with their Ace on the mound.

Aaron Nola will be looking to build off what can only be stated as an impressive season thus far. He is 12-3 with a 2.30 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 20 starts this year, including a perfect 8-0 with a 1.71 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in nine home starts. He has also had a good amount of success against the Dodgers, going 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA and 0.71 WHIP in two previous starts. As a team the Phillies are 17-4 in his last 21 home starts, including a perfect 9-0 in his nine home starts this season.

On the mound for the Dodgers will be Kenta Maeda, who is having a strong season himself. Maeda is 6-5 with a respectable 3.16 ERA on the season, but has been impressive over his last 3 outings, dropping his ERA to just 1.96 during that span. Maeda is 3-1 in his career against Philadelphia, however, his 4.37 ERA shows that he has been vulnerable to this lineup.

The Phillies took a close 7-6 loss last night in the series opener, and with their Ace on the mound tonight, we believe this is the ideal opportunity for them to bounce back. Even though they are the slight favorite, these odds should arguably be a bit higher, which means there is value backing the home team to get it done tonight.

 

#2:Take Baltimore Orioles (+135) on the ML against Boston Red Sox risking 3% to win 4.05%
(Ramirez and Pomeranz must start for wager to have action)

These two teams couldn't be on further sides of the spectrum this season. The Boston Red Sox are one of the premier teams in the league this season and lead the majors in not only wins, but also in nearly offensive category. Meanwhile, this season couldn't have gone worse for the Baltimore Orioles. They are currently occupying the basement of what was expected to be a competitive AL East division but have severely fallen short of expectations. They are not getting solid production from anywhere this season and that has certainly been one of the causes of their struggles.

While these teams appear miles apart from each other, we do believe this could be a matchup where the Red Sox struggle. Not only is Baltimore a very unassuming team, just given their record, but this will be Drew Pomeranz's first start since early May. Pomeranz is likely to be rusty in his first game back and it's not like he was lighting the world on fire prior to spending time on the DL. He had been extremely hittable, giving up 13 runs in his last 12 innings of work. This could be the opportunity that Baltimore needs to get one over on the Sox.

This is also a big-game for the Orioles. Anytime they have an opportunity to face a division rival, especially at Camden Yards, they almost always 'get up' for these opportunities. They were able to hold their own in a recent series when the NY Yankees came to town and we believe they could do the same with the Red Sox.

After being listed as such heavy favorites over the past two weeks, these odds look a little low given the disparity between these two teams. It's certainly worth mentioning that the last time the Red Sox were around -145 favorites on the road, was against another struggling team in the Detroit Tigers and the Sox went on to lose that game 5-0. Baltimore is a bad team so there is always a risk in backing them, however, if there were a time where the Red Sox stumble, we believe tonight would be it. Because of that, there is value in backing the Orioles as underdogs tonight.




Bankroll Tutorial:

Please refer to the important SPS Bankroll System instructions received via email upon joining.