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July 12, 2018

There is one pick tonight. 

 

Take Seattle Mariners (-108) on the ML against LA Angels risking 3.24% to win 3%.
(Paxton and Skaggs must start for wager to have action.)

James Paxton has been sensational on the mound for the Mariners this season but is coming off his first home loss since his season debut, in which he gave up four runs and seven hits over seven innings against Colorado. Despite giving up 4 runs, he fell one strikeout shy of his third consecutive double-digit output and eighth overall this season, which shows just how much command he has had on the ball this season. Paxton has made 11 career starts versus Los Angeles and has gone 4-2 with an impressive 2.07 ERA and 0.88 WHIP while limiting the Angels to a .169 batting average. Given his performance in his previous matchup and his past success against the Angels, we expect Paxton to have a bounce back out tonight.

Tyler Skaggs is expected to make his return tonight from a right adductor strain that had placed him on the disabled list. He will be making his first start since June 30th and we believe that is going to hurt him in this matchup. Not only do we expect that he will be rusty in the early going on the mound, but he has not had a ton of success against Seattle in his career. He is just 1-2 with a 4.63 ERA in 10 career starts versus the Mariners, including a no-decision at Seattle on May 5 in which he gave up two runs over 5 1/3 frames. The Seattle bats should have the advantage in the early going of this matchup.

Last night's contest was a closely contest one and we expect a similar result tonight. Paxton has been arguably the most consistent starting in the Mariners rotation and we would be hard pressed to believe he struggles in back-to-back contests. These are short odds to lay with what has been the more consistent pitcher, especially given the situational advantages they should have. The value is on Seattle.




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