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July 9, 2018

There is one pick today.


Take Kansas City Royals (+195) on the ML against Minnesota Twins risking 3% to win 5.85%
(Duffy and Berrios must start for wager to have action.)

The Kansas City Royals have not had much to celebrate this season. They are a poor team that has struggled to win games this year and with over twice as many losses as they have victories, there is no question that they are are playing for nothing more than pride at this point. The oddsmakers have known this and as a result, the Royals have become substantial underdogs in nearly each and every matchup, regardless of their opponents.

Looking at the side by side comparison of these two teams and it would be easy to see why the Twins are listed as heavy favorites in this contest. The Royals come into this matchup on a 9-game losing streak, while Minnesota is at home and are just coming off a 4-game sweep of the Baltimore Orioles. That being said, it is this perception that we believe opens value on the Royals.

The Royals may have lost 9- straight, however it is certainly worth mentioning that their last three series have come against the league’s elite. Seattle, Cleveland, and Boston are at the top of their games this season and are a tough out for any team, let alone one that has played as poorly as the Royals. KC will get somewhat of a "breather" in this matchup, now having to face a Twins team that is just 39-48 on the season.

Meanwhile the Twins may be on a 4-game win streak, however, we don't feel too much stock should be placed in their recent efforts as Baltimore has been one of the more disappointing teams in the league this season. Prior to that series, the Twins had dropped 8 of their last 9 games.

Danny Duffy will get the start for KC and has a chance to complete a major milestone in his career, and that is record win number 50! Duffy has a chance to do this in his most recent outing but was shelled for 6 runs on 8 hits in his start against Cleveland. Prior to that outing, Duffy had been sharp, giving up just 1 earned run and 7 combined hits in his previous two starts. We expect Duffy to have a bounce back outing in this contest and have a chance to capture his elusive milestone as he is 5-1 with a 2.62 ERA in 14 career starts against the Twins.

The Royals have also had their fair share of recent success against Minnesota, having won 4 of the last 5 matchups and 10 of Duffy's last 13 starts. If there was an ideal opportunity for Kansas City to snap their recent losing streak, we believe it would be this matchup and at this price, the clear value is on the road team.

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