January 29, 2018
There is one pick today.
Take Kansas -1 spread (buy the half point) against Kansas State for 3% of the bankroll.
These two in-state rivals played an instant classic early this season in Lawrence with the Jayhawks coming away with the narrow 73-72 victory. With this matchup now being played in Manhattan, there are many that believe this is the Wildcats opportunity to gain their revenge. While we normally would agree that this is a favorable situation to back the home team in a revenge matchup, ultimately, we believe this matchup should favor the Jayhawks.
Kansas currently holds a narrow, 1-game lead over three teams in the Big 12 conference and just recently suffered a road loss against the Oklahoma Sooners in their most recent road game. Had they not lost that contest in Oklahoma, we would think K-State, at home, would hold some value, however, the Jayhawks will be on high alert in this contest and don't believe they will lose two games so close together.
Kansas will have numerous advantages in this contest, not only on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball, but they also have history on their side. The Jayhawks have dominated their in-state rivals in recent history, having won 55 of the last 60 meetings! Not only that, but since the Wildcats had moved to Bramlage Stadium, the Jayhawks are 25-4 in this venue. Bill Self is a great coach and knows what it takes for his team to win on the road.
It would be 'easy' to back Kansas State in this contest, given their recent performance at home, the fact that they are on a 4-game winning streak and the fact that the first meeting between these teams were decided by just a single point, however, as we have learned in the sports betting business; there is no such thing as an 'easy' victory. When things look too 'easy', that's typically when it is proven that they are not. This is one of those matchups where the public will be heavily leaning on the home underdogs, and we believe they will get caught. The Jayhawks were 12-point favorites at home in Lawrence earlier this season, and we don't believe Kansas State's home court is worth 11 points to justify the swing in this spread. With so much on the line in this contest, we believe the Jayhawks will take care of business on the road and bury the K-State backers in the process.
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