January 24, 2018
There is one pick today.
Take Auburn +2 spread (buy the haf point) against Missouri for 3% of the bankroll.
The Auburn Tigers got back on track with an impressive win over the Georgia Bulldogs after having their 14-game winning streak halted at the hands of the Alabama Crimson Tide. What impresses us most about the Tigers recent performance, was that they did not let their losing streak ending adversely affect their play on the court. The appeared to learn from what did not work in their loss and applied it to their following performance. There was almost an expectation that Auburn would come out flat in that contest and, yet they did not. That shows that this young team is a mentally strong team and extremely well coached.
This is an important matchup for Auburn. Currently they are in a tie for first place in the conference with the Florida Gators, and if they want to continue to keep pace, they need to win games like these. The Gators are hefty favorites in their matchup tonight, so it's important that Auburn win this game. Looking at how the oddsmakers have opened the spread on this game, we believe they have made a mistake. Missouri is a decent team, but we don't believe they are on the same level as the Auburn Tigers.
The contrast in styles of this matchup is likely going to be evident from the early going. Missouri has struggled offensively recently, scoring just 108 points over their last two contests, meanwhile, the Auburn tigers are a high-tempo team that likes to push the pace on offense. They essentially force teams to play at their speed and by doing so, they force them into mistakes. The defensive pressure that they bring into this contest is likely going to be the difference maker. Auburn is forcing teams to turn the ball over on over 20% of their offensive possessions. They run a similar press-style defense that can be likened to that of the WVU Mountaineers. If Missouri cannot figure out how to break that press, it could be a long day for the Tigers on their home floor.
Auburn is a team that does all the little things in the game properly. They execute on offense, they play solid fundamental defense, they are aggressive on the boards and they limit the three-ball well. It is widely known that Missouri is a team that likes to shoot the three, and when it is falling, they can be an extremely dangerous team. Auburn is currently limiting SEC foes to just 28% shooting from beyond the arc. If Missouri is unable to hit their long-ball, we don't believe they will have many second chance opportunities with the Auburn players being so aggressive on the glass.
We have seen Auburn go down on the scoreboard and dig themselves into some deep holes early on in games, however, we have also seen them able to rally and claw their way out and go on to win games that they arguably probably should have lost. This is a team with a tremendous amount of heart and that is something that is incredibly tough to count out. The Auburn Tigers are essentially never out of a game and have the ability and determination to win, at whatever the cost, each and every time they step on the floor. We believe they used their loss at Alabama as a motivating factor and with this being their first game back on the road after that loss, we believe they are going to use this to make a statement. This game may be close, but we believe the wrong team is favored here and Auburn will pull off the outright victory.
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