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January 22, 2018

There is one pick today.

Take TCU +3 spread (buy the half point) against West Virginia for 3% of the bankroll.

It's been a tough couple of weeks for the TCU Horned Frogs. They are just 2-5 in conference play this season, have lost 4 of their last 5 games and are slowing watching their tournament hopes slowly dwindle away. The Big 12 conference is one of the most competitive in the country so things aren't going to get any easy for the Horned Frogs as they now host a highly ranked West Virginia Mountaineers team.

The Mountaineers recently snapped their two-game losing streak with an impressive win of the Texas Longhorns in Morgantown in their last contest, in a game which likely boosted their confidence back up. We expect West Virginia to enter this contest extremely confident, not only because of their recent performance, but because they currently lead the all-time series with TCU, a perfect 11-0! Given their dominance, it would be easy for the Mountaineers to look past TCU, especially given their recent struggles, but this is not the same TCU as years' past.

While West Virginia has been known for their vaunted defense, they could have problems tonight, not only with TCU's ability to pass the ball and not get pressed down, but also because they have strength in the post, which is a glaring weakness in WVU's game. Kenrich Williams has reached double figures in points and rebounds nine times this season, and is averaging 14.7 points and a team-leading 9.4 rebounds while Vladimir Brodziansky averages a team-high 15.4 points and is shooting 60.5 percent from the floor. Brodziansky has been even more productive in conference play, averaging 18.7 points, including three games with 20 or more. The size of these two down low, could pose a matchup problem for West Virginia in this contest.

It would be easy to write off the Horned Frogs given their recent record, however, let's not forget that this is still the same team that managed to win 12 straight prior to the start of conference play. Also, TCU has been extremely competitive in each of their losses. Their 5 losses on the season have come by a combined 16 points. They are still one of the most dangerous offenses in the nation and a reason for that is their ability to distribute the basketball, ranking second in the country in assists per game. They gave the Mountaineers all they could handle a season ago in Fort Worth, before ultimately falling 61-60 after a late free throw by West Virginia sealed the game. We expect a similar type matchup tonight, with a lot of back and forth on the scoreboards.

West Virginia is a solid team; however, the Horned Frogs should have the motivational edge in this contest. They are desperate for not only a win, but also to hand this WVU team its first loss in the series. With this game being played in Fort Worth, the Horned Frogs will have the edge and we expect that will propel them to the outright victory.

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