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January 11, 2018

There is one pick today.  

Take Appalachian State +3 spread against Georgia State for 3% of the bankroll.

This is a matchup where we feel that the public perception is somewhat skewed given the overall records of each team. Georgia State comes into this contest at 11-6 on the season and winners in 6 of their last 9 games. Meanwhile, the Appalachian State Mountaineers have had a rough start to the season at just 8-9, but they have been an incredibly strong team on their home floor. The Mountaineers are undefeated at home this season and have won 7 straight home games dating back to last season.

In their six home contests this season, App State is averaging 89.7 points and winning by an average of margin of 31 points per game. Their offensive output is a full 10 points higher at home than on the road this season. Not only is their offense much better in the friendly confines of the Holmes Center, but their defense has been spectacular, holding opponents to 34.9 percent shooting from the field and 23.9 percent from downtown. They are giving up a full 17 less points at home than they have to opponents on the road this season. Even though Georgia State may be the perceived "better team", this is an incredibly tough out for a team that has been a mediocre 5-5 on the road this season and are failing to crack the 70-point mark on the highway.

Appalachian State appears to have the advantage in nearly every statistical category in this matchup. They rank 26th nationally in overall scoring offense and 24th in three-pointers per game. They have also been extremely aggressive on the glass, cleaning up 39.8 rebounds per game versus Georgia State who averages just 32. Given the recent performances by both teams, there is no question that the oddsmakers' hands were basically forced into making the visitors the slight favorites in this contest, however, we don't believe the "favorites" are the team to back tonight. Appalachian State will be playing with a bit of added motivation tonight as they can get back to a .500 record with a win. Given their play at home this season and the stylistic advantages that they should hold in this particular matchup, we like them to grab the outright victory. Even if they happen to fall short, we don't believe it will be by more than a possession, in which the points could prove to be valuable.

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