January 4, 2018
There is one pick today.
Take San Francisco +2 spread against BYU for 3% of the bankroll.
This matchup has been fairly one-sided over the years with Brigham Young winning all 4 matchups over the last three seasons and are an impressive 14-3 against the Dons dating all the way back to 1997. With such success against their opponents, we find it extremely interesting that the oddsmakers have listed the Cougars as just 2-point favorites in this contest and believe that speaks volumes about how they believe this contest is going to play out.
On paper, the Cougars are the perceived "better" overall team in this matchup, given that they are 12-3 on the season and now going up against a team that is just 9-6 overall, but as we have learned, actual games are not played on paper. San Francisco should have all the motivation in the world to end their recent losing streak in the series and have been particularly strong in defending their home court this season. BYU is also a volume shooting team and likes to push the pace in their contests. Typically, the oddsmakers have listed BYU games with overall totals in the mid-140's to 150's. In this contest the total opened at 132.5 which is a bit on the low side for a BYU game. This tells us that the oddsmakers expect this to be played at San Francisco's pace, which is much slower pace with a focus on the defensive side of the ball.
This is certainly an intriguing matchup as the betting public is undoubtedly more familiar with BYU than they are San Francisco and will likely gravitate towards a 12-3 laying just a bucket on the road. We believe that would be a mistake. This spread is (arguably) begging you to take the Cougars in this matchup, which is why we believe the Dons will put together a solid effort in front of their home crowd and finally snap their long losing streak tonight. San Francisco pulls off the upset in this one.
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