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January 3, 2018

There is one pick today.
 

Take Florida State -1 spread against North Carolina for 3% of the bankroll.

The North Carolina Tar Heels begin a tough week in the rugged Atlantic Coast Conference with a visit to Tallahassee to take on the Florida State Seminoles tonight. This year's version of the Tar Heels, despite racking up the wins, have looked less than impressive. They suffered a somewhat head scratching loss to Wofford recently and then shot just 39.7% from the field and had to score the final eight points of the game to beat Wake Forest in the ACC opener 73-69 at home on Saturday. Tonight, they face an explosive and talent-filled Florida State team that must be licking their chops after taking the Duke Blue Devils to the limit on the in their most recent contest.

The Seminoles proved they can hang with one of the best teams in the nation in Saturday’s road loss to Duke. They are excelling on both ends of the court this season and they have been especially dangerous from an offensive standpoint. They are averaging 85.7 points per game, good for 23rd in the country. Three of their top four scorers in the rotation are shooting at least 54% from the field. The Tar Heels do not defend the three-ball very well and the Seminoles just dropped 15 three-pointers against Duke. If this game turns into a shootout, we have to believe it favors the home team. As good as the Florida State offense has been, their defense is much improved this season as they are holding their opponents to just 67.5 points per game, ranking them 84th overall.

With FSU coming off a loss and North Carolina coming off a fortunate win against Wake Forest, we believe the motivational edge lies with the Seminoles. It's rare to see the Tar Heels listed as underdogs, but it's extremely tough to win on the road, especially in a very competitive ACC conference. This should be an exciting game for the casual fan, but from a betting perspective, the Seminoles should win this one by more than a bucket. The value is on the home team tonight.




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