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February 17, 2018

There is one pick today.

Take Xavier +2 spread (buy the half point) against Villanova for 3% of the bankroll.

This is a big-time matchup as the Villanova Wildcats take to the road to take on the Xavier Musketeers and one that we believe favors the home team. These teams are ranked #3 and #4 in the country, respectively, however, it has been the Wildcats who have struggled recently. Villanova has dropped two of their last 3 games headed into this matchup and may be ripe for the picking. Villanova is one of the most efficient offenses in the country, especially from 3-point range, however, recently they have failed to find their range. This is a team whose success has been dependent on their long-range shooting and given their struggles, we expect that to be their downfall this afternoon.

As efficient as Villanova has been, Xavier has quietly been just as efficient. They have yet to lose on their homecourt in Cincinnati and this is a revenge game for the Musketeers. Villanova won the first meeting earlier this season, however, both teams are in different form at the moment. It could be said that these teams are trending in opposite directions at the moment. We expect to see an extremely motivated Xavier team this afternoon, and that could spell disaster for a struggling Villanova team.

The Wildcats have also been sloppy with the basketball recently and turned the ball over 19 times in their most recent contest against Providence. They cannot afford to have another performance like that and expect to win on the road, especially not against a team as good as Xavier. We expect this to be a close game, however, Villanova may be unravelling just a bit. Xavier should force the Villanova players go basket for basket with them and if that is the case, we expect the Wildcats to fall just short at the end. This is Xavier's game to lose and we expect them to come up big in the second half and add to Villanova's recent struggles. The value is with the undefeated home team getting points in this contest.

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