February 14, 2018
There are two picks today.
#1: Take Massachusetts -3 spread (buy the half point) against George Washington for 3% of the bankroll.
The George Washington Colonials are just 10-15 on the year overall and they are in last place in the Atlantic 10 with a 3-9 record. A big part of their struggles this year has been their play on the road. The Colonials have gone 0-8 in their true road and they have also gone 0-2 in their neutral site games. They are simply a different team on the road than we have been used to seeing in years past. They simply cannot seem to get any kind of production away from home as they are averaging just 58.2 points on offense, while their defense is giving up an average of 76.1. Their 72-65 loss to George Mason in their last contest was the closest road loss that they have played in this season. That does not bode well as they now must face a UMass team that has lost 6 of their last 7 and will be motivated to end their recent losing skid at home.
While offense has been an issue for the Colonials, the UMass offense has been firing on all cylinders, averaging over 71 points per game this season, but it has been their defense that has let them down the most. They have given up at least 82 points in their last 4 losses, however, we don't believe that should be an issue tonight against a George Washington team that struggles to score. For all their struggles on defense, the Minutemen have played much better at home, holding their opponents to just 70.8 points per game. We can't see the Colonials coming near that mark tonight.
This is also a quadruple revenge game for UMass as the Colonials have managed to win the last 4 straight in the series. This season, the tables have seemingly turned. George Washington is not the same team that they have been in year's past and tonight's meeting will prove just that. We wouldn't be surprised if George Washington suddenly finds their offense in this contest, however, they will not be able to keep up score for score for the full 40 minutes. UMass will pull away in the second half and come away with the win and cover.
#2: Take Vanderbilt -1 spread against Mississippi State for 3 % of the bankroll.
Mississippi State is trying to make a push for an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament, although a soft nonconference schedule won't help, and the Bulldogs missed a good opportunity in an 89-85 overtime loss at Missouri over the weekend, halting their four-game winning streak. Like most of the SEC, the Bulldogs have struggled on the road in conference play this season, dropping five of six. Vandy, on the other hand, is 4-2 at home in conference (winning three straight) and have a great chance to turn things around with four of their last six games being played in Memorial Gym.
For those who are not familiar, Memorial Gym is one of the toughest places in the SEC conference to play in for opponents, given its unorthodox setup. Vanderbilt has a huge advantage in this contest that cannot be ignored. The Bulldogs have also been an absolute disaster playing in true road games this season, going just 1-6 overall in conference. The Commodores will be motivated in this contest after losing three straight and will be anxious to end their recent skid. This is also a revenge game for the Commodores, who lost the first meeting 80-62 on the road back on Nov 23rd.
The Bulldogs play great defense, ranking 39th in the country, however, we don't believe they will have the offense to keep up in this contest. Vanderbilt is a completely different team when they play at home and we believe they will show that tonight as they come away with the closely contested victory.
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