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February 13, 2018

There is one pick today.

Take Minnesota +10 spread against Michigan State for 3% of the bankroll.

The Minnesota Golden Gophers have been struggling as of late. They have lost their last 7 games and now find themselves in a matchup against the highly ranked Michigan State Spartans. While much of the betting public will look at this matchup and believe it will be an 'easy' blowout win for Tom Izzo's team, we believe there is quite a bit of value backing the home team in this contest.

While Michigan State appears to be a national title contender this season, they have fallen off quite a bit from their dominant ways of earlier in the season. While they have certainly found ways to win, the matchups that they have been playing in have been extremely closely contested. They have won their last few games by just a single possession and of their 7 road games this season, 5 of them have come by less than 10 points. There is no question that Richard Pitino's team will be motivated to turn their recent skid around and there should be no lack of motivation on the player's part, especially with a highly ranked team coming to town.

As much as the Golden Gophers have struggled recently, a bulk of their games have come on the road and against highly ranked competition. They have played much better at home this season where their points per game increase by nearly 6 than when on the road. Their home wins this season (10 of them) have also come by an average of over 9 points per game. Even if Minnesota doesn't pull off the outright victory, we don't need them to. Getting these many points with a home team, in front of what should a raucous crowd, should be enough to keep Minnesota in the game. We have seen Michigan State take their foot off the gas late in games and if that happens again tonight, it will leave the door wide open for Minnesota to squeeze within this generous point spread. The value is with the home team in this contest.

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