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February 12, 2018

There is one pick today.

Take Baylor +3 spread against Texas for 3% of the bankroll.

Looking at this matchup, it pits two teams that are extremely similar in their style of play, but who are heading in completely opposite directions. The Texas Longhorns come into this matchup having lost 2 straight and 3 of their last 4 games. Meanwhile, the Baylor Bears come in winners in three straight and are coming off a confidence building win in their last contest, up-ending the highly ranked Kansas Jayhawks. During their 3-game win streak, the Baylor Bears have been playing excellent defense, holding teams to just 62.3 points per game on 37% shooting from the field. These two teams met earlier this season with Baylor coming away with a 69-60 victory in Waco on January 6th where the Bears held Texas to just 35.3% shooting and we don't see where much changes in this contest. The best way to crack Baylor's zone defense is with outside shooting and the Longhorns are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country so we don't see them having much success offensively. Texas is a team that has a strong defense, but they are not great on the glass or in forcing turnovers and Baylor excels on the offensive glass, ranking 22nd in the nation. Their ability to clean up their misses and generate second chance opportunities is going to be key in this matchup and will likely be the deciding factor.

As hard as the general betting public tries, it is extremely difficult for them to look past any glaring statistics and we believe it is their perception that is going to be their downfall tonight. Looking at the records of these two teams, on the surface, it would appear that Texas has an advantage. They are 11-3 at the Frank Erwin Special Events Center this season and facing a Baylor team that is just 1-7 on the road this season. That in of itself, on the surface, pits a 'good team' against a 'bad team' and we feel that is a statistic that they will not be able to shy away from. We expect this to be a battle that is controlled by the defenses and if that does turn out to be the case, the points could prove to be valuable at the end. Baylor is playing the much better basketball at the moment and should use their victory over the Jayhawks to propel them to the outright win in this contest. Even if the Longhorns do manage to put forth a strong effort and somehow find a way to pull off the outright victory, we don't believe it will be by a convincing margin and the points could prove to be valuable in the end.

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