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February 9, 2018

There is one pick tonight.

Take Miami Heat -1 spread against Milwaukee Bucks for 3% of the bankroll.

The 'Prodigal Son' is back. Dwyane Wade was traded back to his NBA hometown (Miami) earlier today and is set to take the court! The 13-time All-Star isn't the player he used to be and will likely start the game off the bench but his presence alone is likely to lift the spirit of the entire locker room and electrify the fanbase. Wade is the Heat's all-time leader in points, assists, steals and games! He's been the face of the franchise for a long time and has the personality to uplift a squad that needs it right now. That's because Miami has dropped 5 straight games and could really use a boost! D-Wade may not have the best performance on the court tonight but we believe his new teammates which are many of his former teammates will do enough to snap this losing skid.

The Heat are an excellent defensive team thanks to Erik Spoelstra and when a team plays defense that well, they don't often struggle for long! We believe they are better than they have shown recently and expect them to get back to winning ways. This is a determined group of players that never give up. Their roster is made up of highly motivated individuals that have a tenacious personality. Losing five in a row doesn't sit well with them and we believe they'll give it everything they have to turn things around tonight.

The Bucks have been playing very well under interim coach Joe Prunty. They are 7-1 with him in charge after Jason Kidd was fired midseason! While impressive, we don't expect them to be able to continue this winning streak. They are a good side and one that could well make the playoffs but for them to extend their winning run to 4 games will be difficult in this particular matchup. Let's not forget that this Milwaukee team is 1-5 ATS (against-the-spread) so far this season when having won 3 or more in a row! We believe they've been playing a bit over their head and have been somewhat fortunate recently. It's only a matter of time before they show some inconsistency much like they did with Kidd in charge and it could start tonight.

Despite a 5-game losing streak, the Heat have been set in the favorite role and although they are only marginal favorites in this spot, we believe they are likely to get the job done. It's worth noting that Miami has won twice as many (16) games as it has lost (8) when dressed as 'favorites' by Vegas! They are 16-8 in such games for a reason and a lot of that goes back to their defensive intensity. This club has built an identity around their organized stifling defense and the players have fully bought in. They take pride in their prowess on that end of the court and that is often the difference between a winning or losing squad. They have had a lot of injuries this season and are still suffering from a couple of important players being out but all in all this is a team built the right way over a long period of time and coach Spoelstra deserves credit for putting together what looks like another playoff team. 'Buy low and sell high' is often our motto when it comes to backing teams and players and this -1 spread is an attractive one on the hosts tonight. Back them at this reasonable price knowing you are catching them at a time when their stock is low and few want to side with them. 

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