February 7, 2018
There is one pick today.
Take Florida State +3 spread (buy the half point) against Virginia for 3% of the bankroll.
The Virginia Cavaliers have been one of the elite teams in the nation this year and currently sit atop the ACC conference with an impressive 11-0, undefeated record. They have been steamrolling their competition as of late, winning games by a margin of 16 points per game but has been most impressive is that they have been doing it behind strong defensive efforts which currently places them at #1 in the nation in defensive scoring.
What we find interesting is that despite all the accolades that Virginia brings into this contest and how effortlessly they have been winning games that the oddsmakers had only listed them as slight favorites in this contest against a Florida State team that has a solid, but not as impressive record / resume as the Cavaliers. We believe the oddsmakers have laid the spread where they have for good reason. There is no question that the betting public is going to be all over the more consistent and impressive Cavaliers, but we believe that is there was a game where 22-1 Virginia were to struggle; it would be this one.
This matchup is a true contrast of styles and one that we expect to test the vaunted Cavalier defense. The Florida State Seminoles come into this matchup ranked 16th in the nation in scoring and have proven to be able hold their own and hold victories over the likes of Miami and North Carolina in ACC play. The Seminoles are coming off a huge confidence building victory over the Louisville Cardinals in their last contest on the road and should be able to use that momentum to guide them now that they are back at home where they are 10-1 on the season.
Virginia has rested their success on the play of their defense, but as in years' past, they have struggled mightily on the offensive side of the ball. The Seminoles are one of the more offensively explosive teams in the country and will have the added benefit of playing at home. If they can navigate and break the Virginia defense, we feel it will be tough for the Cavaliers to keep pace. We fully expect Florida State will pull off the upset tonight, however, even if they don't, we expect they will put in a spirited effort and keep this matchup within a one possession game. If that turns out to be the case, then the points will prove to be valuable at the end.
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