February 1, 2018
There is one pick today.
Take Villanova -13 spread against Creighton for 3% of the bankroll.
At first glance, it may seem like an attractive proposition to back a high-scoring team like Creighton getting double-digit points, however, we believe they are this big of an underdog for a reason. As much potential as their offense has, they have fallen off a bit on that end in conference play and it’s hard to see them having enough options to keep up in this game. Marcus Foster and Khyri Thomas are by far the best scorers that Creighton has to offer but the problem in this matchup is that are going to have to work extremely hard on the other end against the likes of Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, and Donte DiVencenzo. The other issue is that Villanova can put Bridges on one of those guards and lock him down for most of the game due to his size and length and handicap the Blue Jays offensively.
It shouldn't be lost that Creighton is without their best player in Martin Krampelj and while the Blue Jays are 2-1 since he has been out of the rotation, their two wins came against St Johns and Georgetown, two opponents with a combined 3-18 record in Big East play. At the end of the day, Villanova has too many scorers for Creighton to be able to compete on the road. Foster and Thomas can only do so much, especially since Brunson and DiVencenzo can match and probably exceed whatever those two do on offense. Add in Bridges and Spellman and it’s a large advantage with Krampelj not there to help with scoring for Creighton. Villanova has eclipsed the 89-point mark at home in every Big East contest and we don't believe that will change tonight.
The Wildcats are coming off a closely contested matchup with Marquette which may sway some of the betting public off of them against another offensively explosive opponent, however, they are #1 team in the nation for a reason and we believe they prove that one again tonight. They have blowout potential each and every time they step on the court and have shown the drive and professionalism to play for the full 40 minutes. The Wildcats have also won 6 straight meetings, five of which have come by double-digits. It may be close in the early going, but the Wildcats will create separation in the second half and cruise to a fairly easy win and cover.
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