December 21, 2018
There is one college football pick today. Please note that kickoff for this game is scheduled for 12:30pm EST.
Over 57 total points in FIU vs Toldeo for 3% of the bankroll.
This is a matchup that we believe is destined to have a ton of points scored. Toledo is a team that runs a very efficient style of offense which allows them to put points on the board consistently at will. The Rockets have scored 45+ points in four of their last 5 games while eclipsing 50 points in three of those outings.
FIU on the other hand has been one of the surprise teams this season and a big reason for that has been their resurgence on the offensive side of the football. They feature an extremely balanced attack, racking up 247 yards through the air and 170 yards on the ground which has allowed them to score at least 36 points in each of their last 4 wins.
The total on this matchup was originally set by the oddsmakers at 66 combined points but has since dropped 9 points to where it sits now at 57. That is a huge swing and we believe many have viewed this as sharp money on the Under, which may be the case, however this total has been steamed down so much that any value has been sucked away and actually flipped to the other side. Neither team was really known for their elite play on defense, and with a couple of weeks to prepare, we expect both coaches will have had plenty of time to add new wrinkles into their offensive playbook.
Both of these teams have been known for their explosive downfield plays, and we expect to see a fair amount of those this afternoon. We wouldn't be surprised, given the line movement, if both defenses have some early success, however, both teams should be able to contribute to the score as the combined total goes just Over.
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