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December 20, 2018

There is one college football pick tonight. 

 

Marshall -3 spread against South Florida for 3% of the bankroll. 

It's rare that a team gets to play a bowl game in their home stadium, but that is the case for the South Florida Bulls in this contest. While that would normally be a huge advantage for a team, USF has been a disaster at home this season, going just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games at home, including failing to cover in 4 straight. After starting the season off 7-0, the wheels quickly came off the Bulls season, losing their last 5 games and a big reason for that was their sloppy play on defense. They own the 91st scoring defense in the country and are 121st against the run, giving up an average a 245 yards per game on the ground! That alone makes this a terrible matchup for the Bulls. Marshall is one of the more balanced teams that USF has faced this season and has a potent ground game headed by two dynamic backs in Tyler King and Brenden Knox. If the Bulls continue their struggles on the defensive side of the ball, Marshall should be able to march up and down the field all game with relative ease.

On the defensive side, Marshall has been stout, especially against the run. They have the 8th best rushing defense in the country, holding teams to an average of just 103 yards per game on the ground. This could spell bad news for the Bulls, who have relied on their ground game in order to move the football. They also have uncertainty at the QB position, with Blake Barnett, who has been dealing with an injury, is questionable for this game. There are simply too many things that would need to go right in order for the Bulls to pull off the victory tonight.

We believe this spread is giving too much love for the home field advantage for the Bulls, and on paper, this is actually quite a mismatch. Marshall has long been a team that has gotten up for their bowl game. This has been a season to forget for the Bulls and we believe that carries over into this matchup tonight as Marshall goes on to win and cover.




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