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December 10, 2018

There is one NBA pick today. 


Minnesota Timberwolves +10.5 spread against Golden State Warriors for 3% of the bankroll.

The Golden State Warriors are expected to have Draymond Green back in the rotation tonight which puts the defending champions rotation back at full strength. While that certainly does justify the Warriors once again being listed as double-digit home favorites, we don't feel that this is an ideal spot for Golden State.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are a scrappy team and are more than capable of keeping this game close. Since the trade of Jimmy Butler, this Minnesota team is playing more like a "team" in that they are getting other players heavily involved, most notably Karl-Anthony Towns. Towns is a beast of a big man and poses matchup problems for any team. Draymond Green is just coming off a lengthy layoff and while he may contest the big man in slowing him down, we don't believe he will be capable of stopping him one-on-one.

This is also somewhat of a flat spot for the Warriors as well as a potential look ahead, so this is an incredibly dangerous sandwich spot for Golden State. Steve Kerr's team is coming off a huge road victory over the Milwaukee Bucks and have a revenge matchup set up with the Toronto Raptors on Wednesday. They could certainly come out in this spot a bit flat after their big win and may get caught looking ahead to their next contest. The Timberwolves are not a team that should be looked over.

While it's tough for any team to match up with a full-strength Warriors team, we do believe this is a situation where Golden State may not continue to keep their foot on the gas pedal for the full four quarters, which opens up a lot of value getting double-digits in this contest. While Minnesota likely doesn't pull off the outright upset, we do believe they will remain competitive enough to cover this rather large number.

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