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December 4, 2018

There is one pick tonight.

 

Dallas Mavericks -2 spread against Portland Trail Blazers for 3% of the bankroll.

The Portland Blazers have been struggling as of late, especially on the defensive side of the ball where they have been giving up an absurd amount of points to opposing offenses. Meanwhile the Dallas Mavericks have been surging, having won 7 of their last 10 games and 7-straight at home. A majority of the betting public will likely overlook this game since Luka Donic remains questionable for this contest, and management will likely play it safe with their star rookie, but the Mavs did get production from other places on the floor in their most recent contest.

Both Dennis Smith Jr and JJ Barea are dealing with injuries of their own and are both questionable, which will only give the betting public more cause for concern. If one (or both) players are held out, we will likely have a PG by committee approach which will only cause a usage for both Harrison Barnes and Wes Matthews, who will likely combine to make up for the lost production of those injured.

While the offense may take a hit in this game for the Mavericks, it is certainly worth noting that a bulk of their wins have come from their play on the defensive side of the ball, especially around the perimeter. They have been locking down perimeter shooting during their recent hot-stretch and Portland is a team that likes to jack the ball up from the outside. If Dallas can continue to play solid defense on the outside, they should be able to keep the Blazers offense in check.

Portland will likely be desperate for a win, given their recent stretch, however, this is a tough matchup to get it in, especially given how well the Mavs have played at home this season. The spread likely could have been a couple of points more, if the injury status for Dallas wasn't so vague, but we believe that's where some of the value in this line lies. Given Portland's struggles on the defensive end, Dallas should do just enough to continue their win streak and come away with the win and cover tonight.




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