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August 23, 2018

There is one pick tonight.


Take Cincinnati Reds (+185) on the ML against Chicago Cubs risking 3% to win 5.55%.
(DeSclafani and Hamels must start for wager to have action)

Cole Hamels has been nothing short of dominant since arriving in Chicago, going 3-0 with a 0.72 ERA. He has been nearly unhittable and has had a tremendous amount of success against Cincinnati in his career, going a near-perfect is 10-1 with a 1.93 ERA in 15 starts lifetime appearances. As good as his numbers look on paper, we believe the Cubs are simply over-valued in this situation.

The Reds have owned the Cubs this season and are one of the few teams in the league who have a winning record against Chicago (7-5). They have played the Cubs extremely tough this season and we don't expect things to be different tonight, especially with Anthony DeSclafani on the mound.

DeSclafani has been outstanding in three starts this month, allowing just two runs over 21 2/3 innings with 16 strikeouts. The Cubs have also been struggling to put runs up on the board. Prior to last night's offensive outburst, they had failed to score more than a single run in 5-straight games! Given how well DeSclafani has been pitching as of late, we wouldn't be surprised if their offensive woes resume tonight.

This pick is all about value. While Hamels has been great, at some point he is going to slip out and have a mediocre outing. Against a team that has had the Cubs number this season, we wouldn't be surprised if that time is tonight. Getting near 2-to-1 odds on the Reds in this matchup is simply too good to pass up. Even if they happen to lose this game, the value is clearly on the visitors.

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