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August 14, 2018

There is one pick tonight.  

 

Take Colorado Rockies (+185) on the ML against Houston Astros risking 3% to win 5.55%.
(Marquez and Verlander must start for wager to have action)

While it may appear that the Houston Astros are the better team, with the better pitcher on the mound in Justin Verlander tonight, the fact remains that this Houston team is struggling at the moment. They are coming off a 4-game series with the Seattle Mariners in which they were swept at home, which brings their home record during this skid to a paltry 0-8.

Meanwhile, the Rockies have been doing some damage of their own and are coming into this series opener off three straight wins over the LA Dodgers to pull within a single game of the NL West leading Arizona Diamondbacks and just 2.5 games back of the Milwaukee Brewers for the second Wildcard spot.

While one may think that Justin Verlander has the advantage on the mound tonight, we don't believe the Astros should sleep on Colorado's German Marquez. Marquez has been a much better pitcher on the road this season and managed to strike out struck out a season-high 10 batters against Pittsburgh in his last outing.  At the moment, he is eight strikeouts short of matching his career high (147) set in 2017 and punched out at least eight in each of his last three turns. This will be his first time pitching against the Astros lineup, which could give him an advantage in the early innings tonight. In his career, Marquez is 4-0 with a 2.45 ERA in seven career interleague starts.

Verlander, meanwhile, is coming off a terrible outing in which he allowed 6 earned runs on 7 hits in just 2 innings and was ejected from the game for arguing a balk call. It will be interesting to see how Verlander responds from that outing, but if he comes in too overly emotional, the Rockies are an explosive offensive team that could make him pay for his mistakes. 

Houston is a quality team and we don't expect them to continue to struggle. Eventually they will snap out of their funk, however, until they do, they have shown little reason to back them at such a hefty price. The Rockies are a capable team and we wouldn't be surprised to see them pull the upset tonight. The value is with Colorado in this one.




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