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August 13, 2018

There is one pick tonight.  


Take LA Angels (-116) on the ML against San Diego Padres risking 3.48% to win 3%.
(Heaney and Richard must start for wager to have action)

The San Diego Padres have played their last three series against teams in playoff contention and have ultimately held their own, winning six of 10 against the Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee and successfully backed them yesterday afternoon in their series finale against Philadelphia. They have looked like a much different team over the past 2 weeks, however, that doesn't change the fact that they are sitting in dead-last place in the NL West and 24 games under .500.

While yesterday we saw value in backing the Padres, tonight, we believe the correct play is going against them tonight as they open a series with an ultra-desperate LA Angels team. The Angels have not been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention as of yet, but with each and every loss their window of opportunity becomes smaller and smaller. They dropped their final two games of their series with Oakland, and desperately need to have a strong showing in this series to keep their hopes alive. This is exactly the type of series (against this type of opponent) that the Angels are not only expected to but need to win so we expect to see added effort tonight in the series opener.

Padres pitcher, Clayton Richard is winless in his last eight starts and has failed to record an out in the sixth inning of any of his last four turns. The veteran has registered 17 strikeouts and 26 walks in those eight outings and was reached for five runs and seven hits (two homers) over five frames at Milwaukee on Tuesday. This is exactly the type of matchup that the Angels could use to get their offense going and set the tone early in the series.

This matchup really comes down to motivation. The Angels are the better overall team, with the better pitcher on the mound and are the team that has the most to play for in this contest. It's nice to see the Padres playing well at the moment, but their most recent opponents really had nothing to play for in their series and likely overlooked the Padres. We don't expect that to happen with the Angels. Each game is important to them at the moment and we believe they show that tonight as they take down the Padres in convincing fashion. The value is on LA in this matchup.

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