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August 12, 2018

There is one pick tonight.  


Take San Diego Padres (+105) on the ML against Philadelphia Phillies risking 3% to win 3.15%.
(Lucchesi and Arrieta must start for wager to have action)

On paper, it would appear that the Philadelphia Phillies have the advantage in this matchup over the lowly San Diego Padres. The Phillies are currently atop the NL East ranking while the Padres occupy last place in the NL West. The Phillies also have a former Cy Young winner in Jake Arrieta on the mound against a relatively unknown in Joey Lucchesi, so it seems almost like a no-brainer; however, we're not so sure it is that simple.

While Lucchesi is relatively an unknown, he has pitched incredibly well for this Padres team this season. He has shown great command with his pitches this season, amassing 87 strikeouts in just 84 innings of work. With the Philadelphia offense somewhat struggling at the moment, and the fact that they don't have much experience in their lineup against Lucchesi, this could be an advantage that the Padres have in the early innings of the game.

The Padres do have experience against Arrieta, but even if they don't manage a ton of success, the Phillies bullpen has shown to be inconsistent this season and this is a matchup that could come down to the bullpens. If that turns out to be the case, this could be yet another advantage the Padres hold in this contest.

The oddsmakers have set this total at just 7.5, which means it is expected to be a low scoring game. When that is the case, anything can happen, and the winner could be decided by which team comes away with a key hit late in the game. Despite the perception of these two teams (and their current standings) the oddsmakers still made the Phillies on slight favorites in this contest, which we believe is very telling. It's always hard to trust a team like the Padres, however, we believe they are the correct side in this matchup and won't be surprised when they steal this one late.

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