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August 8, 2018

There is one pick tonight.  


Take Over 8.5 Runs (-110) in New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox risking 3.30% to win 3%.
(Severino and Giolito must start for wager to have action)

The odds on this matchup is one-sided and there doesn't appear to be much value at all, however, the same cannot be said about the total runs expected to be scored. Luis Severino has been struggling over his last 4 starts, giving up a combined 20 runs in his last 20 innings. Meanwhile Sam Giolito is coming off some quality performances, however, it should not go unnoticed that he currently leads the AL in most earned runs, walks and hit batters. Against a Yankees team who currently rank 2nd in the league in runs (575) and 5th in on-base percentage, the New York bats could have a quite a bit of success offensively tonight.

With this being the last game of the series, we expect both teams to give it everything they have. New York is still fighting for a potential playoff spot, while the White Sox will have the added motivation of trying to prevent being swept at home. The Over is 11-1 in the last 12 when the White Sox have faced a game 3 of a series and 6-2 in their last 8 games played at home. Meanwhile, the over is a perfect 11-0 when Severino has faced an AL Central team.

We don't expect Severino to continue to struggle for the remainder of the season and there is a good chance that he gets back to form tonight against an inconsistent White ox offense. That being said, the Yankees offense should enjoy quite a bit of success tonight and we wouldn't be surprised if they carried a bulk of the burden of this total, or even, cashed the over themselves. Either way, we expect this game to finish a run or two above where the oddsmakers expect it to be. The value is on the Over tonight.

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