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August 4, 2018

There is one pick tonight.

 

Take Toronto Blue Jays (+218) on the ML against Seattle Mariners risking 3% to win 6.54%
(Estrada and Paxton must start for wager to have action)

The Toronto Blue Jays have owned the Mariners in this series thus far, racking up 11 hits and 2 homeruns in each of the last two contests, while outscoring the M's 14-5 in the process. While many may believe this is the ideal spot for the Mariners to bounce back with James Paxton on the mound, we believe this is a matchup that favors the Blue Jays.

Paxton has had a tremendous season thus far and is one of the few pitchers in the league to throw a no-hitter this season. when a pitcher throws a no-hitter, the oddsmakers naturally inflate the odds when that pitcher takes the mound.  Not only do we believe Paxton is somewhat overvalued in this matchup, but it is surely worth mentioning that the team that Paxton no-hit were these same Toronto Blue Jays! No team likes to be held hitless in a game and you can believe that this club will want to get their revenge in this contest, especially since they are seeing the ball extremely well at the moment. 

Paxton also suffered a back injury recently and just made his return in his last outing against Houston. It has yet to be seen whether there is any lingering soreness, which could have an impact on his performance tonight. Even though the pitching matchup doesn't favor Toronto with Marco Estrada on the mound, we do believe he will be able to hold his own him this contest, which will give his offense a chance. This matchup is all about value and with the Jays in a revenge situation against Paxton, the value is simply too good to pass up at more than 2:1 odds to hope that they string a couple of late runs together late to pull off the outright victory. 




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