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August 3, 2018

There is one pick tonight.


Take Boston Red Sox (+117) on the ML against New York Yankees risking 3% to win 3.51%
(Porcello and Severino must start for wager to have action)

The Boston Red Sox managed to hammer their heated rivals last night in the series opener and really made a statement with their 19-hit offensive onslaught led by Steven Pearce's 3 homeruns in their 15-7 victory. We believe last night's game set the tone for the series and the Red Sox are showing quite a bit of value tonight now as underdogs at home.

On the surface, it may seem like the Yanks have the pitching edge as Luis Severino is set to square off opposite of Rick Porcello, however, we are not so sure that is the case. Severino has been struggling as of late and is 1-2 with an 8.85 ERA in four starts since beating Boston on July 1 and has failed to work more than five innings in any of those outings. He is also coming off his worst two starts of the season, surrendering a total of 13 runs (12 earned) and 19 hits across 9 1/3 innings in losses to both Tampa Bay and Kansas City, who are not teams known for their explosive offenses, which should give the advantage to the Sox at the plate.

Meanwhile, while it hasn't always been pretty, Rick Porcello won for the fifth time in his last six decisions despite an uneven performance last weekend against Minnesota, surrendering four runs over 5 2/3 innings. Porcello has had issues with giving up runs, especially at Fenway Park, however, as evidenced by his 5.10 ERA, however, the Red Sox are also 7-3 in those contests, which shows that they have provided Porcello with the much-needed run support. Porcello has also fared well against the Yankees, with a lifetime ERA of 3.42 in 22 career starts. 

When these two teams meet it is typically a back and forth affair and we don't expect anything different tonight. The Red Sox have the momentum from last night's victory and with the added motivation of creating even more separation from themselves and the top of the division, coupled with the fact that they are once again playing at home, the value is simply too good to pass up on the home team as underdogs.

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