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April 26, 2018

There is one pick tonight. 
 

Take Chicago White Sox (+153) on the ML against Kansas City Royals risking 3% to win 4.59%.
(Giolito and Junis must start for wager to have action.)

Two of the worst teams in the American League square off tonight as the Chicago White Sox open a 4-game series tonight at Kauffman Stadium and despite both teams, far from flattering records, we do believe there is value in this matchup.

The Chicago White Sox are just 5-16 on the year, which is their worst start to a season dating all the way back to 1950. While they haven't exactly been playing well, their opponents have been arguably worse. The former World Series champions are off to a terrible start to the season, having lost 12 of their last 14 games and began a seven-game homestand with back-to-back losses against the Milwaukee Brewers. The Royals are an embarrassing 1-9 at home, that includes two losses to this same White Sox team to open the season.

On paper it may appear that the Royals have the pitching edge tonight, with Jake Junis scheduled to take on a struggling Lucas Giolito. Giolito is coming off his worst start of the season where the Houston Astros absolutely clobbered him. He gave up 5 hits and 9 earned runs, while walking 7 batters in just 2 innings. It was a terrible performance by the right-hander, however, he has enjoyed success against Kansas City in the past. In his career, Giolito is 1-0 with a 2.33 ERA and WHIP of 1.035 in three career starts. His team is also 3-0 against Kansas City when he has taken the mound. Given his poor performance in his last outing, coupled with his past success against this team, we wouldn't be surprised to see Giolito have a bounce back performance in this contest.

The Kansas City Royals' offense has been inconsistent on the year. They are averaging just 3.3 runs per contest, which leaves very little room for pitching error, which will put a lot of pressure on the shoulders of Junis. Of their 5 wins this season, 4 have come against left-handed pitchers, which means they are just 1-12 against right-handed starters. This is a very hefty price tag to lay with a team that simply cannot be trusted to win games. Even if Kansas City manages to win this game, the risk versus reward puts all the value on the White Sox. If they can manage to score a late run or two, they may be able to 'steal' the victory, heavily rewarding their backers. Given how even these two teams are and the fact that this game could go either way, the reward for backing the White Sox certainly outweighs the risk in this matchup.




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