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April 20, 2018

There is one pick tonight. 

Take LA Dodgers (-140) on the ML against Washington Nationals risking 4.2% to win 3%.
(Scherzer and Kershaw must start for wager to have action.)

The featured MLB matchup on the card tonight figures to be an entertaining pitchers' duel as Max Scherzer of the Washington Nationals squares off against Los Angeles' Clayton Kershaw.

This is an interesting matchup from an oddsmakers prospective as both pitchers are often valued in the -190 to -225 range consistently throughout the season, so to see this game hover at the -140 (+130) mark shows value on both sides. Both Scherzer and Kershaw are quality pitchers, and capable of pitching an absolute gem and leading their team to victory; there is no question of that, and for that reason, we expect a lot of the betting public to be all over Scherzer tonight, especially at plus-money. That being said, looking at each hurler's success against the opposing team, it's hard to ignore what Kershaw has done against Washington in the past.

In 16 career starts against the Nationals, Kershaw is an impressive 12-2 with a 2.47 ERA and WHIP of 0.965. LA is also 14-2 when he has taken the mound. On the other hand, Scherzer hasn't necessarily struggled when facing the Dodgers, owning a lifetime 3.18 ERA and WHIP of 1.104, through 11 starts, however, he does own a 3-5 record, while his team is just 3-8 overall when he has taken the mound, giving the edge to Kershaw and LA in this contest.

The Dodgers are also the team that is playing better baseball at the moment and come into this series opener on a 4-game win streak in which they have outscored their opponent 37-12 over that span. We expect runs will be hard to come by in this matchup tonight, however, given the edge that Kershaw should have on the mound, and the play of the LA lineup at the plate, we expect LA to come away with what should be a narrow victory. You don't see Clayton Kershaw valued this low often during the season, so when we do, he's almost always worth backing.

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