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April 18, 2018

There is one pick tonight. 

Take Boston Red Sox (+107) on the ML against LA Angels risking 3% to win 3.21%.
(Porcello and Skaggs must start for wager to have action.)

We believed the Boston Red Sox had tremendous value last night as hefty underdogs and they came through with a dominating 10-1 victory in Game 1 against the Angels. While the opportunity is not nearly as lucrative tonight, there is still plenty of value backing the Red Sox once again as underdogs tonight.

On paper, it once again looks like we have a quality pitching matchup slated tonight as Tyler Skaggs is set to square off against Rick Porcello. The issue that we have with this matchup is that we are not fully invested to believe that Skaggs is the real thing, despite how he has performed thus far this season. Skaggs has been in the league for several years, and this is the best start to a season that he has had. He's already equaled his win total from a season ago, when he went 2-6 with a 4.55 ERA in 16 starts. He has a losing record overall in his career and has a lifetime ERA that hovers around the 4.0 mark. Facing a lineup that has scored 75 runs in their last 9 games, we wouldn't be surprised to see Skaggs statistics this game fall back towards his mean.

Porcello on the other hand, is a pitcher who has shown a ton of potential. After winning the Cy Young in 2016, he had a setback last year. Through his first three starts however, he is looking much more like the 2016 version of himself. Thus far Porcello is 3-0 with a 1.83 ERA. but what has been most impressive is that he currently has a 17-1 K:BB ratio. He has shown good command this season and has been once again getting the run support which so badly eluded him a season ago. In this matchup, we believe Porcello has the advantage.

It's hard to go against Boston at the moment, especially at this price. They roughed up the best pitcher in the Angel's rotation last night and LA used up quite a bit of the bullpen as well. We expect the Boston bats to stay hot tonight as they once again get to the Angels' pitching staff and come away with the underdog victory.

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