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April 16, 2018

There is one pick tonight. 

Take Texas Rangers (+165) on the ML against Tampa Bay Rays risking 3% to win 4.95%.
(Perez and Snell must start for wager to have action.)

The Texas Rangers are showing incredible value tonight as underdogs against the Tampa Bay Rays tonight and their risk / reward is simply too good to ignore. The Tampa Bay Rays are struggling to start the season. They are just 3-12 on the year and yet the oddsmakers thought it was fitting that they be labeled as nearly 2-to-1 favorites? We're not buying it. The perception of this pitching matchup is the only things swaying these odds and we don't believe it's as big a mismatch as perceived.

Martin Perez's numbers are certainly unflattering to start the season, however, a big reason for that was due to the drubbing that the Angels put on him his last time out. Perez was tagged for 8 runs on 9 hits (2 homeruns) in just 3 innings of work. It's not often that Perez has been tagged that hard as he has been one of the most consistent hurlers in the Rangers' rotation and is almost always given plenty of run support. Texas has won 10 of the last 13 trips he has taken to the mound, including 5 of the last 6 on the road. Given the struggles in his last outing, we fully expect Perez to bounce back tonight, especially against such an anemic Rays offense.

Blake Snell is the perceived 'better' pitcher in this contest, however, he hasn't exactly been lighting the world on fire. He is 1-1 with a 3.60 ERA through 15 innings but has had major control issues to start the season, walking 10 batters in those 15 innings. Eventually, all the free passes on base are going to catch up to him and we wouldn't be surprised if it happened tonight given the momentum that Texas is currently riding.

The Rangers are coming off a series win over the defending MLB champions and showed signs of life on Saturday when they rallied from 5 runs down to defeat Houston 6-5. We haven't seen that type of fight from the Rays since their opening day win against the Red Sox. Tampa is simply too consistent on offense to be backed at these odds which gives the Rangers a great chance to steal this game on the road.

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