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April 14, 2018

The NBA Playoffs are here and Sports Profit System could not be more excited!

SPS has two picks for Game 1's in the first round. One is for tonight while the other is a Sunday matchup.

Take Miami Heat +6.5 spread against Philadelphia 76ers for 3% of the bankroll.

The 76ers are undoubtedly a very good team this year and have really turned the corner from their 'Trust the Process' days a year ago or two. They are a side to be respected and Brett Brown has done an excellent job of getting the most out of this group. Having said all that, this is still a pretty young group for the most part and one that is far from the finished article. They exceeded expectations in the regular season and deserve credit for that but the playoffs are a different animal and we believe the more veteran squad, Miami Heat, has an advantage here.

Joel Embiid will miss the opener of this series but could be back for Game 2 or potentially Game 3. Philadelphia of course hasn't quite needed him as they ride a 16-game winning streak heading into this matchup but we believe they'll miss him tonight. Ben Simmons is an incredible talent and will be a player to watch over the coming years but right now he feeds off his sheer athleticism and drives to the basket a lot either finishing at the rim or dishing out to teammates on the perimeter for assists. He hasn't yet developped much of a shot. He struggles from mid-range and the foul line and has virtually no game from beyond the arc! That means a defensive-minded team like Miami will be able to create a game plan to limit his effectiness. Erik Spoelstra is a great coach and has even managed to keep a player like LeBron James contained in the past! We believe he and his team are capable of holding Simmons to a below-par night. 

Pat Riley's Miami Heat are the quintessential definition of a 'team'. They have no real 'superstars' at this point anymore given that Dwyane Wade is past his prime and yet are a very formidable squad given that they have many capable players that fly under the radar. Wade is still getting it done, albeit now with the second unit off the bench along reserve big man Kelly Olynik and 3-point specialist Wayne Ellington while the starting lineup is quite balanced and can hurt you on the inside or outside. Hassan Whiteside's minutes might be down from last year but in him they have a legitimate rim protector! He can change Ben Simmons' shots if not block them and if that wasn't enough, they have a veteran black belt in James Johnson who will probably be tasked with shadowing the talented 76ers guard. Then there is Josh Richardson who is one of the best defenders in the league and All-Star Goran Dragic, a player long underappreciated by NBA fans but one finally getting his dues.

These two teams have played some very tighly contested matchups in the regular season and we expect another one here in Game 1 of the playoff series. The Heat have what it takes to record an upset away from home and had one of the better road records among mid-level teams! But even if they fail to walk out of Philly with a 'W', we don't believe they'll go down easily. We expect them to give this young team everything they can handle and if that's the case, this game could be decided in the final minute or so. In a matchup this close that could go either way, the value is with the 6 and a half extra points and we'll gladly side with them knowing the points may come into play.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Miami is 23-16 ATS as an underdog this season.
  • The Heat had five players make over 100 three-pointers in the regular season! 
  • Miami is 12-5 ATS in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record.

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