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April 3, 2018

There is one MLB pick tonight and it is a play on the Run Line (-1.5 runs). 
 

Take Houston Astros (-115) on the RL against Baltimore Orioles risking 3.45% to win 3%.
(Verlander and Wright must start for wager to have action.) 

The Baltimore Orioles certainly haven't had the type of start to the season that they had expected. After getting a season opening win over Minnesota, the offense scored just two additional runs in that series, managing to put up just a single run against the Astros in last night's season opener. Their offense has certainly been struggling and we don't expect them to break out of their funk tonight as they square off against Justin Verlander. Verlander pitched well in his first start of the season, going 6 innings, giving up just 4 hits and zero earned runs. Against an offense that has been struggling, we wouldn't be surprised if he had a similar showing tonight.

While the Baltimore offense has struggled, the Astros have seemingly picked up right where they left off a season ago. They are averaging 5.6 runs per contest over their first 5 games and have dominated the Orioles in recent history. They are 12-2 in this series over the last 3 seasons with a perfect 7-0 mark in game played in Houston. Mike Wright will get take the hill for the O's tonight and this will be his first start in almost 2 years! Wright appeared in 13 games last season, but that was in a relief role. His ERA was over 5 and was a contributing factor in a late season 6-game losing streak for Baltimore last year. Now, in the starting role, against a red-hot offense, we expect the Astros to get to him early and often and sit on a lead.

Given the way that these two teams have been on opposite sides of the spectrum, it's reasonable to think that Houston should win this matchup without much effort. The value is not there laying straight up odds, however, believing that the Astros are more than capable of winning this game by more than a single run, the run line has quite a bit of value. As long as the Houston bullpen does not give up an above average amount of runs late in the game, the Astros should win this convincingly.




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