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April 2, 2018

There is one pick tonight and it is the final play of the college basketball season! 

Take Michigan +7 spread against Villanova for 3% of the bankroll.   

The Villanova Wildcats looked like absolute world-beaters in their Final 4 matchup, easily disposing of the #1 seed Kansas Jayhawks. The Villanova guards took the game over immediately, sinking three-pointer after three-pointer to completely run the Jayhawks out of the gym. It was an extremely impressive display on the (then) highest profile game of the season and there is no question that the Wildcats performance in that contest has severely swayed the public perception of this matchup.

The Michigan Wolverines on the other hand were in a dogfight for the first 32 minutes of their Final 4 matchup with the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers, before their defense clamped down and ended the game on a 19-2 run which saw them advance to the championship game. It hasn't always been pretty, but the Wolverines have found ways to win games down the stretch and could pose a legit problem for the Wildcats in this matchup.

Michigan is not going to allow the Villanova shooters to get open shots the way that Jayhawks did. Their perimeter defense is simply too good. They held the Ramblers nearly scoreless from 3-point range until deep in the second half and if they do that to Villanova, who chucked up a record 40 three-pointers against Kansas, it's going to play directly into the style of game the Wolverines want to make it. Villanova is not a strong offensive rebounding team and that is something that the Wolverines do especially well. Mortiz Wagner was a force for the Wolverines down low and his ability to crash the glass and create mismatch problems down low will likely be key once again for the Wolverines to have success against Villanova. Wagner had a 24-15-1 stat line in that contest and we wouldn't be surprised to see him have another performance like that again tonight.

This is going to be a classic offense vs defense matchup and the Wildcat shooters are going to need to hit their shots from long range to break up the tight man defense that Michigan plays. The Wolverines will also need to have success from long range and clean up their misses if they are going to want to contend with the high-powered offense that Jay Wright's team possess. We don't expect either team to look as they did in their Final 4 matchup, which should make this a fairly even contest. The odds on this game are inflated simply due to Villanova's most recent performance, however, the Wolverines defense will keep the in this contest and even if they don't happen to win this game outright, should be able to keep them within this generous point spread.

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