September 24, 2017
There are two picks today.
#1: Take Buffalo Bills +3 spread against Denver Broncos risking 3% of the bankroll.
NFL fans watched the Broncos destroy the Cowboys last week and are expecting them to roll right through the Bills. Not so fast! Laying just a field goal may not seem like much when backing an undefeated team that has played very well up until this point but could prove problematic in our opinion. The clash against 'America's Favorite Team' was highly publicized and had a lot of media hype going into it. This matchup in Buffalo, not so much. And with the Denver defense having shutdown last year's RB sensation, Ezekiel Elliot, they are no doubt very proud of themselves! In celebrating that emphatic victory, they are likely overlooking a Bills squad that can be dangerous in its own right and wants to prove a point.
The Bills nearly upset the Panthers out in Carolina last week but ultimately fell just short. Coach Sean McDermott made a couple of question calls in regards to not calling timeouts late in that one which may have cost them the game. We believe the rookie head coach has learned a thing or two as has his squad of players. And in LeSean 'Shady' McCoy, they have a running-back who believes he's the best RB in the league! While we don't agree with his assessment, McCoy has established himself as one of the top backs in NFL in recent years and his confidence means he will punish those who underestimate him. We believe he's keen to make a point here against this stout Denver defense, knowing that if he does well, he'll have 'outdone' Elliot, a player that many think higher of than 'Shady'. This is also a bounce-back game for him, after the Carolina defense kept him in check big time last Sunday.
Tyrod Taylor is a mobile QB that can hurt defenses if they start to pay too much attention to McCoy. He has the ability to extend plays with his legs and could have a big day if the coordinator elects to use him in cleverly designed zone-reads. He's not an inexperienced quarterback anymore either, having seen it all over the last couple of years. Trevor Siemian is finally getting the credit he deserves but Taylor, on the other hand, whose stock was somewhat high last year is now being talked about as a liability. We don't see him as a quality or a particularly poor signal-caller, if he can get the ball out of his hands quickly and be decisive, the Bills could win this outright.
No one is talking about the fact that offensive tackle Garrett Bolles is unlikely to feature in this one for the Broncos. Even if he does, he's banged up and unlikely to be at 100%. Good offensive line play has given Siemian time to move around and throw the ball in the first two games of the season but if Bolles sits out today, the Bills' pass rush might wreck this game. Jerry Hughes was immense in Week 2 and he's not the only one on this Buffalo squad that might make life difficult for the Denver offense today. We believe the Broncos are still riding high after an important win against Dallas and might be slightly looking past the mediocre Bills. After all, they have a big date against undefeated Oakland Raiders coming up next win in what could ultimately decide the division! Buffalo has great home-field advantage and more to win or lose today! Look for them to put up an inspired effort that sees them walk out as winners or fall just short but cover the spread.
#2: Take NY Jets +6 spread (buy the half point) against Miami Dolphins risking 3% of bankroll.
The Jets have been blown out in the first two games of the season but actually played better than the final scores suggest. Against the Raiders for example, it was a competitive battle right until just before half time when a pick-6 changed the complexion of the game! We believe they've learned a lot from the first two games and have started to 'gel' as a team. They are now able to play more as a cohesive unit than at the beginning of the season. Given all the departures and arrivals in the off-season, it was always going to take a bit of time for this squad to learn each other's tendencies. We still believe they have a long way to go and are one of the NFL's worst teams this season, but we do expect them to surprise a few people today and cover the spread. Back at home, against a division rival, we expect Gang Green to finally give their fans something to cheer about.
They may not win this game outright but should put up a proper fight. This is a contest that could well be decided in the final possession. If that is the case, we can see the 6 points proving very precious and coming into play. The public is backing the Dolphins as the Jets have given them no reason to be wagered on but sharps are often one step ahead of the game and see things happening before they do. New York is a poor team but not as bad as they've looked in the first two games and there are certain intangible factors that actually give them an edge in this matchup.
The Dolphins for example were training in California after their opening game of the season was postponed due to Hurricane Irma. They only traveled back home last week to witness the aftermath of it all and after being away from home for a few weeks were undoubtedly distracted by non-football matters! Shortly after, they made the trip to the Big Apple to prepare for this game. Adam Gase' side is a better one than New York this season but might find it tougher than expected this afternoon. Todd Bowles is under some pressure after a poor season last year and a tough start to the year this time around and will be rallying his troops. He's a composed leader and one that doesn't get rattled when the going gets tough. We expect the Jets to take the money in this one and cover the spread even if they fail to win outright.
Jay Cutler's debut for the Fins saw Miami run out as 2-point winners against the LA Chargers as Jay Ajayi gave them a balanced offense. If the Jets can do a better job on the ground than they have in the first two games, it'll force Cutler into being more aggressive. We don't see the Dolphins not turning over the ball in this one. We believe the Jets will end up with at least one turnover, whether it be a fumble or an interception. Josh McCown, on the other side, has built good rapport with new acquisition Jermaine Kearse and the former Seattle player is looking like he's ready to prove himself as a #1 receiver in this league. We believe this offense has a long way to go and must utilize Billal Powell and Matt Forte well before pushing the ball down the field but all in all should do enough to keep this game close. Looking at our historical NFL database, we see that NFL home teams that are playing their 3rd game of the season against an opponent that is only playing its second have generally fared very well. They've actually won 5 of 6 such games and in this spot, we don't need the Flyboys to do so. We simply need them to keep this one close and we believe they'll do at least that.
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