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September 21, 2017

There is one pick today.

Take South Florida -18 spread against Temple risking 3% of the bankroll.

The South Florida Bulls had high expectation coming into the season, and so far, they have lived up to them. The identity of this team is unquestionably their offense as they have had no issue running up the points through their first couple of matchups. So far, this season they have averaged 40 points per game and over 522 yards of total offense per contest. There is no question that the Bulls have had this matchup circles on their calendar since it was this Temple team who knocked South Florida out of the conference title picture with a 46-30 defeat a season ago. Now, the Bulls will be out for revenge and we believe they will have a good chance at getting it as this is not the same Temple team that they played a season ago.

The Owls defense closed out the 2016 season ranked 11th in scoring, 3rd against the pass and 3rd in overall yards allowed per game, and while a drop in effectiveness can be expected with only four starters back and having had lost 6 of their top 7 in tackles, there is not much that can excuse their porousness through the first quarter of the season so far, with the team currently ranking 96h against the run and 120th against the pass. Temple allowed over 400 yards on the ground and three different players to eclipse the century mark in week one against Notre Dame, and now must travel on the road on a short week to battle a South Florida offense that themselves had three players go over 100 yards rushing just last week in their beatdown of Illinois.

Unfortunately for Temple fans, their struggles on the defensive side are not the only ones the team is experiencing. Thus far this season, their offense is currently ranked 98th in total yards per game and has scored over 20 points just once so far, this season. The rushing attack led by Ryquell Armstead has fizzled to start the year, with the team having scored just one touchdown on the ground thus far and currently sitting at 116th in the nation. Armstead, who finished last year with 14 rushing touchdowns, has yet to score this season and has rushed for just 177 yards on 48 carries which translates to an unfortunate average of 3.7 yards per carry. Those kinds of numbers are not going to be enough to allow Temple to keep pace with the high-flying Bulls offense.

The Bulls will clearly have payback after their loss last season and now have the benefit of getting a clearly depleted Owl team that was blown out on the road in week one against Notre Dame. The Owls look like a completely different team and struggled mightily at home over the past few weeks to barely get past lowly Villanova and UMass. Charlie Strong has a point to prove this season and he has the offensive playmakers on his team to make a statement. The Owls simply will not have an answer for Quinton Flowers on defense and we don't believe their offense will be able to keep pace in this contest. South Florida should win this game fairly easily in blowout fashion. Unless Temple manages to get a score in garbage time when the game is well out of reach, South Florida should win this one by 3+ touchdowns.

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