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September 14, 2017

There is one College Football pick tonight.

 

Take New Mexico +14.5 spread against Boise State risking 3% of the bankroll. 

Since their 2007 Fiesta Bowl win over the Oklahoma Sooners, the Boise State Broncos have risen to prominence and have become a household name for the better part of a decade. They would rip through the Mountain West Conference, blowing out opponents with relative ease, and on multiple occasions would crack the BCS and make a New Year’s Six bowl game. For the past decade, that has been what the Boise State Broncos have been known for. Fast forward to present day and this is a much different Boise State team than the one we have all come to know. Gone is Chris Petersen. Gone are the players that Chris Petersen recruited, and gone are the days where Boise State is ripping through opponents. The bar has been set extremely high for Boise State over the past decade and we believe the people still perceive this team to be the one of years' past. We simply don't believe that is the case anymore.

The Boise State Broncos have slowly been regressing over the past couple of season's, however they have been subtle decreases and we don't believe the market has fully caught on yet. A season ago, the Broncos dropped their scoring average by over 6 points a game from the 2015 season. On defense, they have been regressing as well. The talent level on the defensive side of the ball has been slowly sliding backwards. Boise State allowed over four yards per carry last season for the first time in a very long time and the 177 yards per game average was the most allowed since 1996.

The Boise State's defense was absolutely gashed late last week against the Washington State Cougars. Yes, the Broncos will be motivated after giving up a huge lead in the 4th quarter a week ago and we do expect them to start fast in this contest, however, the New Mexico State offense is an incredibly tough one to defend. They Lobos run a spread / option attack with stretches the defense and forces players to follow strict assignments. A season ago, New Mexico ran for 6.3 yards per carry in the meeting between these two teams, and we believe this Boise State defense isn't what it was a season ago. With just a week to prepare after such a poor 4th quarter performance, and the fact that New Mexico has added a few passing wrinkles into their game this season, this may be too much for the Boise State defense to handle. Boise State wins, but New Mexico finds a way to cover.




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