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September 12, 2017

There is one pick tonight.

 

Take Detroit Tigers (+345) on the ML against Cleveland Indians risking 3% to win 10.35%.
(Boyd and Kluber must start for wager to have action).

The Cleveland Indians have undoubtedly been on a historic run over the past month and come into this contest on an ultra-impressive 19 game winning streak. Due to all the hype and media attention that is being directed Cleveland's way, the market has unequivocally shifted towards Cleveland and what we are seeing now is extremely inflated and almost laughable odds on this team. The Indians are listed as more than a 4 to 1 favorite in this contest and there is no question their recent winning streak, along with the fact that their Cy Young hopeful, Corey Kluber is on the mound. On paper, this may point to an easy Cleveland win, however, we are not so sure that is going to be the case.

The Detroit Tigers have having a down season, there is no question about that, however this is a division rivalry game and anything can happen in these types of matchups. It's important to remember that there has only been one team in the past 80 years that has ever won 20 straight games. Back in 2002 the Oakland Athletics managed to amass a 20-game win streak before being defeated by the lowly Minnesota Twins in their following contest. As well as Cleveland has been playing over the last month, there is no question that the pressure is starting to build with all the talks of them being on the verge of history and that could influence this team's ability to truly focus on the game at hand. If there has ever been a situation where the Indians could stumble, we believe this would be the situation.

Cleveland has not necessarily been blowing teams away with their offense during this impressive win streak, it has been the consistent performance of their pitching which has really carried them during this streak. That being said, as good a Corey Kluber has pitched this season, he has been vulnerable against the Tigers. Kluber is just 7-7 with a 4.04 ERA in 20 career starts against Detroit and during his start in May, he did surrender 5 earned runs in a 5-2 loss. Matt Boyd will get the start for Detroit and while Boyd has been less than impressive recently, he has had success against Cleveland. In his 3 starts this season, he has held the Indians to just 5 runs in just under 20 innings pitched. With a 2.41 ERA against Cleveland, we're confident that Boyd can limit the damage caused by the Cleveland offense tonight.

Part of our job as professional handicappers is to find an extract value in the matchups on the daily card. Finding the value is just as important as picking the winning side and that is what we are doing here tonight with this matchup. There is no other side on the card that holds as much value as Detroit does in this matchup. Baseball is a sport that can be won or lost by a single mistake or by one swing of the bat. If Kluber is not completely sharp on the mound tonight, or if his bullpen has a poor outing, that could leave the door wide open for Detroit to win this game late. After the season that they have had, there is no question that Detroit would love to be the team that ends the Indians’ winning streak and while many would view this as a huge upset given the lopsided odds on this game, we believe this is the ideal situation that could see the Indians stumble. Cleveland's win streak will eventually end and with such a huge payout on Detroit, should they be the team to end it, the reward far outweighs the risk in backing them here tonight.




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