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September 7, 2017

There is one NFL pick today!


Take New England Patriots -8 spread (buy the half point) against Kansas City Chiefs for 3% of the bankroll.

There has been a lot of talk about the New England Patriots since their historic come-from-behind win over the Atlanta falcons in the Super Bowl. A majority of the talk has been centered around the blockbuster trade that sent All-Star wide receiver, Brandin Cooks to New England, but most recently it has been about the loss of Tom Brady's 'security blanket' in Julien Edelman. Yes, the loss of Edelman is certainly a blow to this Patriots offense, however, New England is especially stack and deep at the receiver position. The addition of Cooks, along with newly acquired former 1st round pick Philip Dorsett, Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski is a potential All-Star team unto itself. The loss of Edelman certainly hurts, but it is not going to have as big an impact on the Patriot's ability in the passing game as most people may think.

The Kansas City Chiefs were, by all accounts, a very underrated team a season ago. They quietly won 12 games during the regular season before being knocked out of the playoff by the Pittsburgh Steelers. This is going to be a much different Kansas City team this season and we believe you will see just how much different in the first few games of the season. Star (but injury prone) RB Jamaal Charles is gone, top possession receiver Jeremy Maclin is gone, Spencer Ware is out for the season after tearing his ACL and LCL and all-defensive player Dontari Poe left during free agency. This is going to be a much different Kansas City team and unlike the Patriots, we believe the losses that they suffered is going to be too much for them to overcome.

The loss of so many offensive players is going to put a much heavier burden on veteran QB Alex Smith, who as we have seen in year's past has proven to be a much better 'game manager', where he incorporates the personnel around him, rather than shouldering the burden of being the person who is solely responsible for winning (or losing) the game. Smith only had 15 touchdowns a season ago, but also had 8 interceptions. Smith has his own version of a security blanket in TE Travis Kelce whom he targeted 117 times last season. Breakdown utility man Tyreke Hill is also back with the Chiefs and does give KC a bit of flexibility on where he can be used on the field, however, if they are going to want to succeed on offense, some other role players are going to need to start making their mark on the team.

Bill Belichick is a master at game planning and taking away a team's most valuable weapon. We have seen him do this numerous times in the past and when teams can't go to their 'go-to' guy, it often forces the opposing coaches to alter their game plan, which, more often than not, ends in a defeat. Belichick and Matt Patricia will undoubtedly do that again in this contest and we believe their focus will be on shutting down both Travis Kelce and Tyreke Hill. If those players are contained, or even slowed down, we believe the Chiefs are going to have an extremely tough time moving the ball on offense, especially against a very underrated defense which held teams to just 15 points per game a season ago.

The New England Patriots are simply one of those teams that seem to cover the spread no matter what the line is set at. They have a peddle to the medal approach and are one of the few teams that play the game and continue to try and put points on the board for the full 60 mins of the game. Even when it appears that the line is too high or the Patriots are going to cover, they just find ways to continue to extend their lead by game's end. At 39 years old, it’s tough to say how much longer Tom Brady has to play under center, however, he is one of the few players that has seemingly gotten better with age and until he starts to show signs of his age with his play on the field, it's incredibly difficult to go against him. Gillette Stadium will be electric tonight after their Super Bowl Banner is raised and that emotion and adrenaline will carry over onto the field. As hefty as this line looks at the onset, the Patriots will foreshadow just how dominant a team they can be this season. Unless the Chiefs manage to score late and somehow sneak in the backdoor for a cover in the final minutes, we believe the Patriots will roll to a somewhat "easy" double-digit victory tonight.

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