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October 29, 2017

There are two picks today.

Sports Profit System is coming off a rare poor Saturday but heads to Week 8 of the NFL season with twice as many wins as losses for an excellent 66.7% NFL mark!
 

#1: Take LA Chargers +7 spread against New England Patriots risking 3% of the bankroll.

The Chargers were completely written off by everyone after an 0-4 start to the season but have won 3 straight to put themselves back in contention! Anthony Lynn needed time as the new Head Coach to stamp his authority on this squad and now has LA playing the way he envisioned. The players have bought into his methods and are full of confidence after 3 morale-boosting victories. Wins are extra satisfying when there have been previous struggles and for a team that started the season by losing a bunch of close games, they are now flying high and playing with swagger. We see them putting up a fight against the defending champs in Foxborough much to the surprise of the casual NFL fan.

The Patriots have the best coach in the business and have him to thank for over a decade of incredible success! They’re still human beings however and while they win a lot of games, they haven’t exactly been profitable against the spread in this type of situation. Don’t believe us? Consider the fact that while Patriots have won all 24 games against NFC opponents when being listed as a TD favorite or more, they are actually just 4-19 ATS (against-the-spread) in those games! Ouch. So while the public loves betting on them, they’ve often let their guards down and done just enough to win these matchups, but not exactly convincingly.

New England mounted a late comeback against division opponents Jets before taking care of the Falcons in what was a Super Bowl rematch! Those two games were undoubtedly more important to them than this particular one. They have a leaky defense that showed improvement against Atlanta last week but still leaves a lot to be desired. It’s given up big plays in chunks and has struggled to contain pass-catching running-backs like Melvin Gordon. Add in the fact that Dont’a Hightower will be missing today and that might just give Gordon and company more room to maneuver. Keenan Allen is one of the top receivers in the league in our opinion but has only caught one touchdown so far this season! He’s contributed in other ways however with lots of catches and big yards and often sets up the team in scoring positions. Julio Jones had also underperformed this season until he record nearly 100 yards and a TD against the Pats last week.

Look for Allen and the Bolts to do some damage this afternoon especially knowing that Phillip Rivers’ team has covered the spread 12 of 15 times when installed as an underdog of 6 or more points! The value is with the visitors in this one as this matchup is likely to be closely-contested and might be settled by a late field goal. It’ll likely be a one-possession game at most and that means we’re siding with the underdog knowing the points might well come into play. New England is in a safer spot with a 5-2 record than Los Angeles who are still just 3-4 on the season and need to continue winning to stay in the AFC West division hunt. We don’t necessarily expect them to win outright today but do think they can keep this one close.
 

#2: Take San Francisco 49ers +13 spread (buy half point) against Philadelphia Eagles risking 3% of bankroll.

This game looks like a mismatch on paper but should be a lot more competitive than most anticipate. Teams that are winless this late in the season are hated by the general betting public and that means Vegas has to spot a few extra points to get some action on them. The average bettor doesn’t want to wager on a team that has yet to win a game but those who do this for a living have no problem doing so if other factors are favorable. Keep in mind San Francisco has been competitive in all but one game this season! They have actually been a profitable bet against the spread having covered more games than not.

Kyle Shanahan’s team set a new NFL record by losing 5 straight games with 3 points or less! Between Sept 17th when losing to the Seahawks (12-9) and culminating with a 24-26 defeat at the hands of the Redskins, this team dropped five games, all by 3 points or less! Their defense frequently limited teams in the red zone while the offense could not get much going, leading to a quarterback change. The fact is that they were right in those games and could have won at least one or two of them, had there been slightly better execution or more luck. Then last week, after a series of close calls, they were naturally frustrated and laid an egg against the Cowboys. Now having been blown out, we expect them to revert to what has been the norm for them this season, and that is putting up a fight! It wouldn’t surprise us if they kept this one close especially against a Philly team that lost a couple of key players to injuries this past week that no one is talking about. Veteran tackle Jason Peters is out as is young line-backer Jordan Hicks! Those aren’t household names but have played a key part in Eagles’ success so far this season!

Carson Wentz is the real deal and deserves all the hype he’s generating. Having said that, this is a matchup that is tougher than it looks for the NFC-leading Philadelphia. The Eagles are flying high and have won 5 in a row! Not only that, they took care of Carolina Panthers on national TV before winning an important divisional matchup against Washington also on national TV. To say they’re in a letdown spot here would be an understatement. When you beat much better teams fairly convincingly, it is only natural to assume you don’t have to bring your ‘A’ game to beat a winless opponent. And that is where players get complacent and pay the price, if not in terms of winning the contest, at least in terms of covering the spread. Keep in mind that winless teams in the NFL are always extra motivated to get that monkey off their back and record their first ‘W’! That makes them surprisingly dangerous and yet often overlooked! All the value is with the visitors in this contest, take the generous points.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Teams which have lost 7 or more games are 123-85-7 against the spread!
  • Eagles have lost 6 straight games after Monday Night Football, today they have to win by 2 or more touchdowns!
  • History shows that winless teams after Week 4 are an excellent 153-119 against the spread!



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