October 20, 2017
There is one pick tonight.
Take Colorado State -8 spread against New Mexico for 3% of the bankroll.
Weeknight games have proven to be extremely tricky for visiting teams over the last couple of weeks. A week ago, tonight, we saw both highly ranked Clemson and Washington State succumb lose to unranked teams as heavy betting favorites and there are questions swirling around this matchup as being another one of those 'shocking' upsets, especially given the way that the Rams were nearly upset in their last contest by a 1-win Nevada team. We're not buying it, however. Colorado State is the by far better team in this matchup (at every position) and if this game wasn't on a short week and in Albuquerque, there is no question that the Rams would be favorites by more than 2 touchdowns.
Colorado State comes into this contest undefeated in conference play and has covered in 9 of their last 10 matchups inter-conference. They have veteran leadership on offense with QB Nick Stevens, who leads the country in nearly every passing category to date. Stevens has been extremely protective of the football this season and has shown poise and precision in the pocket. He also has an NFL talent receiver at his disposal in Michael Gallup. The Stevens-to- Gallup connection is one of the most lethal quarterback-receiver combinations in the country and should be on full display tonight as New Mexico does not have the playmakers in the secondary to contain such an explosive player. Gallup currently leads the nation in receiving yards this season with 948. In their win over Nevada, Stevens and Gallup hooked up 13 times for 263 yards. We wouldn't be completely surprised to see a repeat performance tonight.
While the Rams are a team that likes to air it out, the Lobos are about as one-dimensional as it gets as they run the triple-option ground attack. While that style of offense serves them well, it will likely be their downfall tonight against Colorado State. The Rams will likely stack the box in anticipation of the run and if they can limit the Lobos production on the ground, as Fresno State did in their last contest, it will be difficult for New Mexico to move the ball considering that they are 113th out of 129 team in passing yards this season.
This is simply a bad statistical matchup for New Mexico and their only chance of survival here is that Colorado State beats themselves. The Lobos were held scoreless in their last contest as they were blown out, 38-0 against a mediocre Fresno State team. While New Mexico will likely find some ways to put points on the board, they simply do not have the offensive style to survive a shootout. After Colorado State was sleepwalking in their matchup against Nevada and were nearly upset, we expect them to come into this contest firing and looking to put this contest away early. They will not be surprised in this contest and that could mean bad news for the Lobos. Colorado State simply has too many weapons at their disposal and that will lead to a comfortable victory tonight.
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