October 14, 2017
Sports Profit System has six picks on Saturday! Please scroll down to view them all.
#1: Take Texas Tech +4 spread (buy the half point) against West Virginia risking 3% of bankroll.
This is an interesting matchup considering the current odds on this matchup. A season ago, the Mountaineers travelled to Lubbock Texas and managed to blow the door off the Red Raiders enroute to a 37-point victory. A season later, the Mountaineers are listed as just a FG better on their home field? This is an extremely interesting line and we believe it speaks volumes on how this game is going to play out.
This is not the same Red Raiders team that we have seen in years past. This year's version of Texas Tech is focusing on the defensive side of the ball, which is something that has been lacking from this team in year's past. The Red Raiders are tops in the Big 12 conference and in the top five in the country in turnover margin (+9). The Red Raiders have 14 takeaways on the season with seven interceptions and seven fumble recoveries. Meanwhile, the Mountaineers have not been as opportunistic, with only eight takeaways on the season, tied for sixth in the Big 12. It won’t be any easier for against a Tech team which ranks 12th nationally with only five turnovers lost on the season.
The Red Raiders have also been somewhat of a predictable Air Raid offense, but Kliff Kingsbury ha now added another wrinkle into the programs offense. Against Kansas last week the Red Raiders piled up 313 rushing yards and five touchdowns on the ground, their most since totaling 325 against New Mexico in 2012. In fact, last week was only the second time since 2000 that Texas Tech ended a game with more rushing yards than passing yards. The Mountaineers have been very vulnerable against the run, giving up more than 200 yards per game on the ground, second worst in the Big 12 to only the Baylor Bears.
These are both much different teams than the ones that met a season ago. Texas Tech has made great strides and in our opinion, have been the more impressive team to start the season. Against their only tough tests on the season, WVU struggled mightily against both Virginia Tech and TCU. We expect the Mountaineers to struggle in this one as well against a much more balanced Texas Tech team. This game will likely be a shootout and will be close, however, we expect the Red Raiders to get their manner of revenge and walk out of Morgantown with the outright victory.
#2: Take Kansas State +7 spread against TCU risking 3% of the bankroll.
4 weeks ago, no one was talking about the TCU Horned Frogs, so it is amazing what can change in just one months’ time. At this point in the season and given the number of losses experienced already, TCU is the best hope for the Big 12 conference to make the College Football Playoff. That’s a lot of pressure for Gary Patterson’s team to carry through the rest of the season and it will be interesting to see how this team deals with the pressure moving forward. IT would be easy to overlook a Kansas State team that was upended by Vanderbilt and most recently Texas, but this game is being played in Manhattan, in Bill Snyder Stadium, it would be a mistake to overlook KState in this contest.
Kansas State quarterback Jesse Ertz left Saturday’s game against Texas with an apparent injury and head coach Bill Snyder has keep quiet as to what exactly is nagging his starter. If Ertz can’t go, expect to see Alex Delton taking snaps Saturday against TCU. Delton is a gazelle running the ball and racked up 79 rushing yards on 12 carries with two touchdowns against Texas last week. But he’s not nearly the passer that Ertz is. Clearly, K-State will throw the ball far less if it’s Delton who gets the call at quarterback. Ertz is currently best in the nation in yards per completion (16.91) and 10th in yards per attempt (9.30). Don’t expect a game plan like that with Delton. Expect a heavy dose of the rushing game led by the quarterback, along with running backs Alex Barnes and Justin Silmon and that kind of offense can wear a defense down over 4 quarters.
There is no question that TCU is the flashier, more high profile and talked about team at this point in the season, but as we have seen in the past, teams who start to buy into their own hype often get caught in this tricky type spots and this one is extremely tricky for the Horned Frogs. While it would be considered an upset if TCU were to lose this game, we do believe Kansas State can keep things close and make things interesting at the end. While we don't necessarily believe TCU loses outright, the Wildcats will put a scare into TCU and the points will come into play.
#3: Take Georgia Tech +7 spread (buy the half point) against Miami risking 3% of the bankroll.
Determining the best matchups during the college football season is often based on certain situations that may be overlooked by the general public. In this case, it would be easy to back the Miami Hurricanes in this contest with Georgia Tech. Miami is coming off a high-profile, final second win over their rivals, the Florida State Seminoles in what was one of the more entertaining games a week ago. That being said, that victory cost the Hurricanes quite a bit. Miami is banged up at the moment and injuries are starting to pile up on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball. Most notable, dynamic RB Mark Walton is scheduled to miss the remainder of the season with an ankle injury, which clearly alters the dynamic of this team.
With the injuries starting to pile up, we have seen the Hurricanes defense change just a bit. While they are still talented and athletic, they have been much more vulnerable of the last couple of weeks, especially when it comes to defending the run. The Seminoles were able to gash the Canes on the ground and is where they did a bulk of their damage in the second half. Georgia Tech is arguably the best rushing team in the country and utilizes the option attack which forces players to remain disciplined on defense. The option is arguably the perfect counter to an aggressive defense and if Miami gets to aggressive and doesn't remain disciplined, then the Yellow Jackets should be able to march up and down the field on them all afternoon.
After such an emotional victory a week ago and now facing an Georgia Tech team who has somewhat flown under the radar this season, we wouldn't be surprised to see the Canes overlook this matchup and get caught looking ahead in their schedule. The Canes need to be focused otherwise it is completely possible that Georgia Tech pulls off the upset.
#4: Take Houston -13 spread (buy the half point) against Tulsa risking 3% of the bankroll.
A season ago, these two teams played in one of the more entertaining games in AAC play and came down to the final possession. A lot has changed in a years’ time as both of these teams are shells of their former selves. Houston is no longer the powerhouse they once were, although they are quietly still having a solid season and are still a dangerous team in conference play.
Tulsa on the other hand have fallen a long way from their 10-win team a season ago. They are just 1-5 on the season and their quarterback, Chad President is completing just over 50% of his passes. For a team that was once known for their explosive offense, this is now a team that struggles to move the ball with any kind of consistency.
The Tulsa defense has always been an area of concern for this team, however, because their offenses was so explosive, the hurricanes ability typically masked it to light up the scoreboard. This season however, the Tulsa defense is a glaring weak point which culminated last week as they allowed a mediocre Tulane team to do whatever it is they wanted on the offensive side of the ball. While we do expect a much more solid effort by Tulsa on the defensive end, they simply don't have the chops to slow down Houston for a full 4 quarters. Houston will be able to name their score in this contest and we expect their defense to limit what President is able to do on the offensive side of the ball. Houston comes away with a blowout victory on the road this afternoon.
#5: Take Texas A&M +3 spread (buy the half point) against Florida risking 3% of the bankroll.
After losing to Michigan to start the year, Florida rattled off three straight victories before being upset at LSU last weekend 17-16. This is a team that has been in a lot of close games, with three being decided by six points or lasts, and two decided by a single point. The Gators are still looking for the answer quarterback, which hasn’t looked to be Felipe Franks. Franks is completed 63.2 percent of his passes, but has just 665 yards and three touchdowns in five games. The team is still looking for someone to take up and take command of this quarterback position, and that will not bode well for them against the Aggies.
The Florida defense has not been particularly noticeable so far this season, recording just 13 sacks, five interceptions, and one forced fumble. They do play well as a group, led by CJ Henderson and Duke Dawson who each have two interceptions. Florida's defense is designed to keep things close and grind teams down. They don't have a power offense; however, their defense has been good enough to allow their offense to make a play or two at the end of the game. We expect this to be another close, low-scoring game tonight.
What bodes well for the Aggies is that they have played well in close contests. Five games have been decided by 10 points or less, and this is likely to be a close battle as well. The experience is something that should totally favor A&M. This is a very well-rounded offense that starts with an impressive running game, led by Trayveon Williams. Williams has 422 yards rushing this season with five touchdowns. He has an impressive 5.2 yards per carry average, which is really impressive considering that he was absolutely shutdown against the Crimson Tide last week, gaining just 38 yards on 15 carries. Look for him to make a statement after such a disappointing performance.
Kellen Mond is an impressive dual threat QB, who has rushed for 266 yards and two touchdowns while throwing for 1045 yards and seven touchdowns. He has completed just 56.7 percent of his passes, but has thrown only three interceptions in 155 attempts. This young man is a real talent, and there is no doubt that he will be a huge difference maker in this game
This is a game where mistakes are going to be a pivotal part of who winds up being victorious, but despite the fact that Florida is favored, Texas A&M is clearly the better team here. They nearly upset Alabama last weekend, and will not only cover the spread, but will win this game out right.
#6: Take Arizona +3 spread (buy the half point) against UCLA risking 3% of the bankroll.
Arizona and UCLA combined for just seven wins a season ago; they have six combined coming into this game. Needless to say, both teams are dramatically improved from 2016. The winner will head into the season's second half at 4-2 and above .500 in Pac-12 play, with a real opportunity to make noise in the South division.
UCLA has dominated the series since Mora took over, but the matchups have always favored the Bruins. This year looks like the exception. Arizona's multidimensional rushing attack should be able to take advantage of a Bruin defense ranked No. 129 in FBS stopping the run.
Arizona's defense has made considerable strides this season, although slowing Rosen and the passing attack could prove difficult. Still, the Wildcats have shown an ability to rise up on that side of the ball, even in the two losses. This time, Arizona should get just enough defense for a win.
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