October 6, 2017
There is one pick tonight.
In addition, SPS has released an early NFL play for Sunday!
Take the OVER 73.5 total points in Memphis vs UConn for 3% of the bankroll.
Looking at the total that the oddsmakers have set in this matchup between the Memphis Tigers and UConn Huskies, we believe that number may be a bit off-putting to those who have followed the UConn Huskies program over the last couple of years. For the most part, UConn had been a team that had a strong focus (and were respectable) on defense, while their offense was one of the worst in the country for the better part of a decade. That seems to have changed this season. The Huskies' normally sound defense is currently ranked 127th out of 130 teams, giving up an embarrassing 542 yards per game to their opposition. They are also dead last against the pass, giving up 379.8 yards per contest.
Their struggles on defense have been widespread and now they are talked with facing a Memphis offense that comes in 36th in the country in total offense and were averaging 44 points/game prior to that bad showing at UCF in their last contest. Given their performance in their last contest (mustering only 13 points) we expect the Tigers to come into this contest highly motivated and looking to put as many points on the board as possible. Considering that UConn has allowed 38 points to Virginia, 41 to East Carolina and 49 to SMU, it’s not out of the question that Memphis hangs 50+ on the Huskies in this one.
The question really becomes can the Huskies do their part on offense in order to contribute to this contest going over the posted total. In year's past it likely would not have been the case, however this season, the Huskies have seemingly turned things around offensively. Connecticut comes into this contest ranked 31st in total offense, averaging 467 yards per contest and boasts the nation’s 12th best passing attack, accumulating 329.8 yards through the air on average. Senior QB Bryant Sheriffs is quietly having an impressive season, although you would not know it looking at UConn's overall record. Sheriffs leads the AAC in passing yards per game and is second in passing yardage while tossing eight touchdowns to two interceptions in four games this season. His 182.33 passer rating is the best in the conference.
While the Tigers are juggernauts on the offensive side of the ball, their defense leaves little to be desired. They are only one spot in the ranking above Memphis ranks 126th in the country, allowing 513.5 yards per game and 36.3 points on average. They are100th against the run, giving up 192.3 yards per game on the ground and 127th against the pass, allowing 321.3 yards per game. Sheriffs should be able to continue to attack downfield especially being at home against what could be the worst defense he has seen thus far this season.
This matchup has all the makings of a shootout and given how losses both teams play on defense, we wouldn't be surprised to see big play after big play which will result in a lot of quick scores. This may be a hefty total to view at the onset, however, we wouldn't be surprised to see both teams put up close to 28+ points each in the first half alone. If both teams can punch the ball into the end zone and not have to settle for field goals, this could turn into one of the highest scoring games of Week 6. While the number may be daunting, after seeing the defenses (or lack thereof) on both teams, this matchup should fly easily over the total.
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