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November 29, 2017

There is one pick tonight.

Take Phoenix Suns +11.5 spread against Detroit Pistons for 3% of the bankroll. 

The Pistons have had a nice start to the season and are considered by some the Eastern conference’s ‘Surprise’ team of the year! They deserve credit for their efforts thus far but this is a squad that is far too inconsistent to be expecting blowouts. They are actually good enough to roll over some teams, especially when overlooked or under-estimated but to be laying double-digit points against a non-conference opponent is too much. There’s no real bad blood between these West-coast/East-coast teams and with Detroit flying high, we can see them looking past the lowly visitors. That is certainly a possibility given that the hosts are coming off impressive road wins in Oklahoma City and Boston! 

The Suns have played much better under Jay Triano. The Canadian head coach took over for Earl Watson and has done a much better job of motivating his players. Under Watson, the players were often solely focused on their number of points and paid very little attention to defense. With Triano in charge, there is accountability on the defensive side and that has allowed Phoenix to not only stay competitive but actually win some games. They are still among the league’s worst teams and are certainly in rebuilding mode but they have 8 wins on the season, including one on the road last night! Thanks to some timely stops in the 4th quarter, the team from the desert pulled off a ‘W’ in Chicago last night and is heading to Detroit with confidence.

Stan van Gundy’s team has more than twice as many wins (13) as it has losses (6) so far this season and as impressive as that is, it doesn’t necessarily bode well for them tonight. They are facing a Western conference opponent that has only 8 wins on the year and it is precisely matchups like these where players feel a false sense of security. Not only are the Pistons a big favorite in this contest, they are also playing at home which means some may incorrectly assume this will be a walk in the park and simply showing up on the court will be enough to beat the opposition. Complacency is a killer at this level and even if the team from Motor-city gets the job done, we don’t see it being a convincing double-digit victory. It wouldn’t surprise us if the Suns jumped on them early in the game before Detroit woke up in the second half and rallied for a late dramatic win! A less than 4-quarter effort might still be enough for them to add another ‘W’ to their tally but it would make covering a spread as large as this very difficult! 

Devin Booker is once again playing like a man possessed and is a future MVP candidate in our eyes. He’s incredibly confident for a player that is still only 20 years old and given what he has already accomplished in his NBA career, at such a tender age, it’s easy to see why. He and TJ Warren have been keeping Phoenix in games through their natural scoring talent and while Warren can get hot-and-cold, Booker is almost always dangerous! The fact that the Suns rotated the squad a bit last night and didn’t use any of the players in big minutes works well for them tonight since that game gave them further self-esteem while not tiring them out too much. We believe they are capable of putting up a bigger fight tonight than most anticipate. Take the generous amount of points with the underdogs against a team that is in in a classic ‘let-down’ spot.

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