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November 28, 2017

There is one pick today.

Take Baylor +5 spread (buy the half point) against Xavier for 3% of the bankroll. 

Xavier comes into this contest ranked 20th in the country but are coming of a shocking (blowout) loss in their last contest where they fell 102-86 against Arizona State in the Las Vegas Invitational. While many believe this team will bounce back tonight after such a crushing defeat, we're not sure that will happen, let alone cover any kind of spread. The Musketeers are a veteran team, and explosive on the offensive side of the ball, however, their play on defense has left little to be desired this season. Their two games against top competition have come against Arizona State and Wisconsin where they gave up 102 and 70 points respectively. They will have a stern test ahead of them facing one of the best defensive teams in the country this season.

The Bears defense has been outstanding this season and are holding teams to just 38.3% shooting from the field. They are currently ranked 17th in the country in points allowed at just 59.4. They gave up 60 points to Wisconsin and 59 to Creighton, a team that has averaged 92 points per game this season, which shows just how impressive they are on the defensive side of the ball. Baylor has yet to allow any team to score more than 66 points in any game this season. While many may be concerned that this is the Bears' first road game of the season, if there is one thing that travels well, it's a team's defense.

The Baylor Bears have already passed a few big early tests this season on their way to winning the Hall of Fame Classic last week which included wins over the likes of Wisconsin, UCLA, and Creighton. This is an extremely battle tested team that should not be intimidated by the hostile crowd. They are 3-0 in their last 3 meetings with the Musketeers, which shows that they are a team capable of handling this offense. The Cintas Center is a tough place for teams to play and there is no question that Xavier will have a slight advantage with the home crowd behind them. That being said, we don't like what we have seen on the defensive side of the ball with Xavier. If the Baylor's defense continues to play as they have been thus far this season, it will open up opportunities for their offense to gain extra possessions. As long as this game doesn't turn into a shootout, the Bears should be able to keep pace on the scoreboard and get a couple of critical stops late to pull off the outright upset.

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