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November 20, 2017

There is one pick tonight.

Take Long Beach State +26.5 spread against West Virginia for 3% of the bankroll. 

There is no question that the West Virginia Mountaineers are the better all-around team in this contest, however, this is also a rather large spread that they are being asked to cover against a scrappy Long Beach State team.

Long Beach State isn't a program that stands out to the casual college basketball fan, however, they are an extremely balanced team. While they don't have a true stand-out star on their roster, they do get plenty of production across the board with 5 players who are averaging double-digit scoring this season and are shooting a collective 47.9% from the field. While West Virginia has typically been known for their pressure defense, the 49ers have been solid in that regard as well, forcing an average of 17 turnovers per contest which is tied for 63rd in the country.

West Virginia suffered an early season loss to Texas A&M, which was somewhat surprising. The Mountaineers have been lighting up the scoreboard as of late, but have struggled consistently both at the foul line (69%) and from 3-point range (34.9%). Those area are critical when laying these kinds of points in a game as a single miss could be the difference in covering the spread. The Mountaineers will likely have to play a near perfect game offensively to cover this large number and against a team like Long Beach who has shown their ability to score from anywhere on the floor, it makes creating that kind of separation extremely difficult.

Playing in Morgantown is no easy feat for a road team, however, West Virginia has had trouble covering the number at home, going just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. Meanwhile, the 49ers have been solid on the road, covering 4 of their last 5 on the highway. West Virginia will win this game; however, the 49ers should be competitive enough to stay within this number.

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