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November 17, 2017

There is one pick tonight. 

Take Tulsa +3 spread (buy the half point) against Iowa State for 3% of the bankroll.

The Iowa State Cyclones are a much different team than we are used to seeing in years' past. A pair of losses to open the season in which they failed to crack the 60-point mark shows that this is a team that is a complete rebuilding mode. The Cyclones lost nearly all their production from last year's 24-11 team and while, they could still go on to have a solid season, things will likely be tough for the Cyclones in the early going. A matchup against a much-improved Tulsa team will likely show that tonight.

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane suffered a somewhat shocking loss against Lamar in the early part of the season, but has improved to 2-1 on the season after defeating the Western Michigan Broncos, 81-74, in their most recent contest. Tulsa was outstanding right from the start in this one and held a double-digit lead for the most of the 2nd half after entering halftime with a 43-27 lead. They shot 50.0% from the field while holding Western Michigan to just 36.7% shooting from the field. We believe their loss to Lamar was an eye-opener for this team and we expect that they going to use that defeat as motivation to carry them in the early part of the season.

Iowa State is a team that is used to being the favorites and are living off their reputation from years' past. That being said, we believe the wrong team is favored in this contest. The Cyclones are not the team that they once were, and it is going to take them a while to gel with all of the new pieces in their offense. Tulsa was fantastic on the defensive side of the ball in their most recent contest and should be able to give the Cyclones fits both in the paint and on the boards. The Cyclones have not been known as a defensive minded team and have typically needed to outpace their opponents on the offensive side of the ball to grind out wins. Tulsa is the better defensive team and we should be able to see their offense score points on this questionable Cyclone defense. The only way we see the Iowa keeping up on the scoreboard is by hitting their perimeter shots, and as we have seen in the past, living and dying by taking jump shots is a recipe for disaster. We believe Tulsa wins this game outright, but even if they fall short, Iowa State has not shown us enough in the early going to trust them laying any kind of points. The value is on the Golden Hurricane tonight.

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