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November 9, 2017

There is one pick tonight.

Take North Carolina +10 spread (buy the half point) against Pittsburgh for 3% of the bankroll.

There is no question that the North Carolina Tar Heels have taken a step back from the prominence this season. Carolina has for long been a team that has been on the somewhat decline, but the departure of Mitch Trubisky, Ryan Switzer and a number of other playmakers on this team, has left them in a state a rebuilding and without a clear-cut identity and it has certainly shown given they only have a single win on the season. That being said, we believe this team has found a sense of confidence after going toe-to-toe with the Miami Hurricanes who are one of the top teams in the country this season. The Tar Heels gave the Canes all they could handle in that contest and narrowly fell short on the final scoreboard by less than a touchdown.

After putting on a performance such as that and having a bye week off to reflect, we expect the Tar Heels to have a renewed sense of motivation and confidence, knowing that they can compete with the top teams in the country. Larry Fedora is a veteran coach and there is no question that he is going to use his team's performance against Miami as a building block as the season winds down to a close.

While all the focus has been on how inept the Tar Heels have looked this season, the Pittsburgh Panthers haven't look a whole lot better. Pittsburgh has taken a step back from where it was in 2016 when it took down not one but two conference champions, including the eventual national champion Clemson Tigers. With the departure of both dynamic RB James Connor and prospect QB Nathan Peterman to the NFL, Pitt is also trying to redefine themselves and develop an identity on both sides of the football and with just 4 wins on the season, they have struggled just as much as their counterparts this season.

Perception is likely playing a part in this spread as the betting public is unlikely willing to touch the Tar Heels given their 1-9 record on the season. That being said, this will be only the third time all season that the Panthers have been listed as a favorite, and the first against a Power 5 team. We don't believe the Panthers have any business laying double-digits to a Power 5 opponent, despite North Carolina's record. Let's not forget, these two teams are no strangers to one another and in fact it has been the Tar Heels who have managed to win 4 straight in the series.

are division rival opponents and at this point, the Tar Heels have absolutely nothing to lose. The Panthers meanwhile could be feeling a bit of pressure as not only do they absolutely need to win this contest, but then they have to go on the road and beat either Virginia Tech or Miami in order to secure their spot in a Bowl Game. While Pittsburgh isn't mathematically eliminated as of yet, their postseason hopes are extremely slim. Going against a 1-win team, it would be easy for the Panthers players to be looking past this contest and towards next week’s matchup with VT. If they get caught sleeping on the Tar Heels, it could make things interesting as far as covering this large number goes. The value is with the points in this contest.

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