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May 30, 2017

There is one pick tonight.

Take Houston Astros (+106) on the ML against Minnesota Twins risking 3% to win 3.18%.

The Astros are owners of not only the best record in baseball right now but also happen to be the hottest ball club as well. They have won 5 straight games heading into this contest and are firing on all cylinders! This is a squad packed with talent and perhaps more impressively so, one that plays with great chemistry and togetherness. The players have really gelled well and are clicking. There is little selfish play and everyone seems to have the same mindset of simply winning.

The fact that Houston is a tough out right now was never more on display than in yesterday's series opener against the Twins. They were down by 6 runs heading into the eight inning with seemingly no chance of mounting a comeback. That's when they once again surprised the baseball world by scoring a ridiculous 11 runs in that frame! They then added 3 more insurance runs in the top of the ninth inning to stun the hosts and win the game by a 16-8 final score! From being on the verge of having their winning streak ended, to rallying and winning the game ultimately in blowout fashion, they made some MLB history! Victories like that can often serve as catalysts to successful season and make the bond between everyone in the organization, from players to the coaching staff even stronger and gives them that unshakeable confidence that champions have. 

Minnesota was shellshocked last night as they went from cruising to a 'W' to falling victim to a blowout defeat! We believe that sense of helpness in watching that horror movie unfold will carry over and mean they're not at their best tonight. Paul Molitor's side are a good team this year and will eventually bounce back. They are a determined group but this is too early after what was one of the biggest collapse in baseball history given the margin of their lead going into the final two innings! It'll likely take them a day or two longer to truly 'get over it', and that means in the meantime, they are not a good bet. 

It's the red hot Astros that should be slight favorites in this contest in our opinion and not the hosts. Yet the struggles of Mike Fiers this season has been such that they can't really install him as road chalk; especially when going up against a pitcher who's rolling right now. Jose Berrios has pitched very well so far this season and looks like a different hurler than the one that had an 8.02 ERA last year but we believe he's playin a bit over his head and it's only a matter of time before there's some regression. He is 3-0 with a 1.66 ERA heading into this contest but that's largely thanks to the fact that he's managed to strand 89% of base-runners! That is well above normal for even elite pitchers, let alone a sophomore that still has a lot to learn and we don't believe he'll be as fortunate against these confident Houston bats tonight.

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