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May 26, 2017

There is one baseball pick tonight.
 

Take Philadelphia Phillies (-135) on the ML against Cincinnati Reds risking 4.05% to win 3%.
(Nola and Adleman must start for wager to have action)

The Phillies have the joint-worst record in the National League with just 16 wins so far this season and yet have been installed as significant favorites in this matchup! Is that a mistake? No. We believe there are good reasons behind this crafty move by the oddsmakers. Philadelphia has numerous advantages in this spot and is likely to convert it into a 'W' and opening up the series in stlye.

Aaron Nola was on the DL list for about a month due to lower back issues but looks to have put all that behind him. He performed admirably on his return last Sunday. He held the Pirates to just 1-run on 4 hits while pitching 7 strong innings! He's a talented young pitcher that has baffled many batters since joining the big league club last year. Nola has a better chance of recording a quality start than his counterpart, Tim Adleman, and that gives the hosts a definite edge in the starting pitching matchup.

Tim Adleman has yet to show he belongs in the Majors. He's been inconsistent since making the step up from the minors and has so far pitched poorly on more occasions than he's done well. He currently sports an unsightly 6.19 ERA and might have a tough time righting the ship tonight. What must be a frustrating for a struggling pitcher like him is that the circumstances outside of his control, aren't exactly helping neither. Adleman was originally supposed to take the hill yesterday in the series finale of the Ohio Cup as the Reds battled the Indians! Unfortunately for him, that game was postponed due to weather conditions and wasted all the hours of preparation he had put in, to be ready for Cleveland's offense. Working on a game plan with his catcher and the extensive studying of the scouting report on the Tribe is one matter but the routine that every hurler has before making a start is another; needless to say both were interrupted last night.

Bryan Price and his Cincinnati coaching staff decided to push back everyone in the rotation by one day meaning Adleman gets the ball tonight instead of Bronson Arroyo. This means Adleman will be pitching on 5 days rest instead of the normal 4-day routine, having last pitched on Saturday. It's also worth recalling that in that start, Adleman got absolutely rocked. He gave up 6 earned runs in less than 5 frames! His confidence is low at this moment and his preparation for this contest couldn't have been as good as Nola's, a pitcher that knew he'd be facing the Reds on Friday all week. Back the hosts in this one as they are badly in need of a winning streak and are capable of putting one together, having clinched a morale-boosting extra innings victory last night! 




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